Clouds over Cong as Shukla quits

No wonder, Sonia Gandhi rushed Ghulam Nabi Azad today to Kerala for a last-minute damage-control exercise. After the euphoria of the Congress victory in Himachal Pradesh, and Sonia Gandhi’s decision to invite the block presidents to Delhi, suddenly the mood in the party has changed. The Chhattisgarh and Kerala developments have created a sense of unease and the reorganisation of the AICC, which was expected last week, has been deferred.

Shukla’s exit is bad news for the party preparing for polls later this year in Chhattisgarh. This is not because Shukla is likely to win seats, but because he is expected to damage the Congress’s prospects. The Shukla brothers certainly have a nuisance value in Chhattisgarh, and Shukla’s departure comes at a time when Ajit Jogi is in serious trouble for other reasons.

Karunakaran is playing his cards close to his chest, even as he hopes to rule the state once again. By fielding a rebel, he has cocked a snook at the party high command. Though Sonia Gandhi has taken a tough line and expelled his protege K. Govindan Nair from the party, senior leaders in the Congress are a worried lot about the outcome of the April-14 election.

Karunakaran is supposed to have the support of 27 of the Congress MLAs in the state, and the backing of another 8, while he needs 37 votes to get his candidate through. The Left has surplus votes and the political grapevine is abuzz with the possibility of the Left supporting his man. Some Congress leaders are even talking of the possibility of Karunakaran trying to form a government as the head of a breakaway group which might be supported by the Left parties from outside.

The possibility of Pawar parallels is what worries the party. Pawar’s strategy, when he quit, was not just to break away from the Congress, but also to capture the Congress organisation and its votebank. He did not succeed in the first round, and had to be content with being the junior partner in government in Maharashtra. But in the zilla parishad elections over a year ago, he reversed the situation.

The recent municipal polls show that Pawar continues to ride high, and the NCP-Congress combine has swept the polls in Kankavali, Shiv Sena leader Narayan Rane’s home turf, winning 18 out of 22 seats. Fifteen of them went to the NCP.