Civilian govt a veil behind Pak army’s iron rule — Experts

"I don’t see any natural rivalry between the two," says Bharat Karnad of the Centre for Policy Research.

"Musharraf, the Chief of Army Staff and Aziz, the Chief of General Staff, are very close to each other. They belong to the special services group."

Karnad says if the present situation were to continue for long, Musharraf could even groom Aziz as a corps commander and finally the army chief.

However, "for certain time, Musharraf has termed himself as chief executive and would like to remain in power," says former foreign secretary J N Dixit, adding "his primary concern now would be to make internal arrangements."

"For the next five to ten years, the Pakistan army will be a major deciding factor," adds Dixit.

It may let the President continue, he says, "but these are mere cosmetic changes so that the global community does not get critical."

Army rule is not new to Pakistan, says former Indian ambassador Natwar Singh, adding that the military is a part of Pakistan’s ruling establishment and India and the world community would have to get used to this.

If Musharraf, known as a hard-liner towards India, and reportedly close to fundamentalist forces like Taliban and groups like Harkat-ul-Ansar and Lashkar-e-Toiba is to wield power, analysts feel things in Jammu and Kashmir could only worsen.

Both he and his second-in-command, Aziz, known for their links with the Taliban, may adopt a "strategy of attrition" towards India instead of launching an adventure of the kind in Kargil, says Karnad.

Therefore, experts like Natwar Singh and J N Dixit warn it would be in India’s interest to remain on its guard and react decisively against any military action.

"Musharraf won’t make friendly overtures after Kargil. India can’t expect warmth from him," says Singh.

Musharraf’s brinkmanship’ in military affairs was best displayed in Pakistan’s misadventure in Kargil in the vital Siachen Glacier between May and July this year.

Jasjit Singh, director, Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), says Musharraf, a protege of late General Zia-ul-Haq and belonging to General Javed Nasir’s (former ISI chief) school of thought is known for his animosity to India.

Singh says Musharraf first drafted the Kargil intrusion plan in 1987 but since it was turned down by Zia-ul-Haq, he ventured ahead only in 1999 once he was the army chief.

Although, Musharraf and his top aides would not show overt support to fundamentalist forces in the months to come, instead concentrating on legitimising their coup and garnering support from the West for economic stability, experts say Pakistan will continue with its missile enhancement and nuclear weaponisation programmes.