CII revises GDP forecast to 6.8%

Riding on active monsoon and robust economic performance during the first quarter of current fiscal, the Confederation of Indian Industry (C...

Riding on active monsoon and robust economic performance during the first quarter of current fiscal, the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) has revised its GDP growth forecast for the year to a range of 6.5 to 6.8 per cent.

In its survey on state of the economy during the first quarter of fiscal 2003-04, CII said that “after dipping sharply to 2.3 per cent in the third quarter of fiscal 2002-03 growth has picked up a bit in the last quarter of the same fiscal to 4.9 per cent and this upswing is likely to continue.”

Inflation dips below 4%
New Delhi: Inflation touched an all-time low in this financial year falling below 4 per cent for the week ended August 2. However, primary articles became costlier, with prices of vegetables skyrocketing. The pull-up effect of primary items and fuels’ group on the overall price level in the country, was to a large extent negated by prices of manufactured products, carrying the highest weight in the WPI basket.
As per figures released by the commerce ministry, continuing its downward spree for the fifth consecutive week, the point-to-point wholesale price index (WPI) inflation plunged to 3.96 per cent, shedding another 0.13 per cent from the previous week’s level of 4.09 per cent. Inflation was at 3.09 per cent during same period in 2002-03. ENS

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‘RBI needs to check Re rise’
New Delhi: CII has called for intervention of the Reserve Bank of India to prevent the appreciation of rupee. In a report, CII has expressed concern over “rate of appreciation of rupee against dollar.” ENS

Quarterly numbers are likely to rise steadily and peak in the third quarter when GDP will rise sharply due to the low base of the previous year. Due to robust rains, CII is also expecting strong positive agricultural growth this year after dismal performance last year and has revised its estimated growth to 4-5.5 per cent compared to 2-4 per cent estimated earlier.

The survey noted that average inflation for the year 2003-04 is likely to be around 5 per cent while inflation in manufactured products is likely to be lower at around 4.5 per cent.

The overall industrial growth trend is also on a rise.

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