CII estimates 6 per cent GDP growth

The Confederation of Indian Industry has made a forecast of 6 per cent overall growth in the year 2003-04 with 3.5 per cent growth in agricu...

The Confederation of Indian Industry has made a forecast of 6 per cent overall growth in the year 2003-04 with 3.5 per cent growth in agriculture, 6 per cent in industry and 7 per cent in services.

However, CII has also noted that a prolonged war in the Persian Gulf, a sharper than expected fall in rural incomes and spike in interest rate might affect this forecast negatively. While giving the basis of 6 per cent expected growth in 2003-04, CII said that ‘‘given the turnaround in corporate performance over the last year, buoyancy in industry and services is expected to continue in the fiscal 2003-04 as well.’’

While agriculture growth is difficult to predict, it is likely to rebound to normal levels helped by the low base of the current year. Therefore, that overall GDP growth will grow at 6 per cent during the next fiscal. CII has also noted that 5-5.2 per cent GDP growth is more likely in 2002-03 instead of mere 4.4 per cent GDP growth as estimated by CSO.

“We disagree with this estimate, given that the quarterly releases had placed agricultural growth at 4.4 per cent and 0.0 per cent in the first and second quarters respectively,” it said. “We think a decline of 0 per cent to 2 per cent in agriculture is more likely, in which case GDP would be in the range of 5 to 5.4 per cent,” CII said.

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