China offers clues to Gen X leadership

The group, known as the Presidium, will elect the secretary-general of the Congress, who is sure to take a seat on the new Politburo Standing Committee, the party’s top decision making body, they said. ‘‘It is cast-iron certainty that whoever gets elected secretary-general will make it to the Politburo Standing Committee,’’ a party source said.

It will be the first formal indication in a complex and opaque succession process of who will lead the world’s most populous nation and Asia’s fastest growing economy through the next few years of wrenching economic and social change.

China’s ruling triumvirate of Jiang, Parliament chief Li Peng and Premier Zhu Rongji, are expected to leave their party posts along with others over 70 to make way for a new generation led by Vice-President Hu Jintao.

But Jiang, 76, is expected to cling to power by pushing allies into the new leadership and having his political theory — the ‘‘Three Represents’’ — written into the party charter, Chinese sources say.

Most important, Jiang has secured the promotion of his main protege and hatchet man Zeng Qinghong, who stepped down as head of the party’s powerful organisation department two weeks ago, they say. The Standing Committee, which now has seven members but could be expanded to nine, is likely to include several other Jiang allies, giving his camp a majority in votes on policy issues, they say.

The Presidium, which is disbanded after the Congress, will choose its own standing committee of about 30 people as well as the secretary-general of the Congress, the sources said.

Zeng and Hu are top contenders for the secretary-general post, they said. Hu held it at the last Congress in 1997.

If Zeng is appointed, it would be another clear signal that he and Jiang will wield ultimate power after the Congress, even if Hu holds the top post in the party, analysts say. Deputy secretaries-general of the Congress are likely to join the 22-seat Politburo, which now has only 21 members as one died and was never replaced, Chinese sources said.

Next week, the Congress will elect a new Central Committee of about 200 members, which will then hold its first meeting and choose a Politburo and Politburo Standing Committee, Chinese sources say. (Reuters)