The communist party of china is holding its 17th Congress from October 15 to 21. The 2,217 delegates who would be attending it have been elected from 36 blocks (including China’s 31 provinces), which in turn have been elected by 71 million members through an indirect process that lasted from October 2006 to June 2007. The party, with its 71 million members, is the world’s biggest. One out of every 15 citizens is a Communist Party member. Its size and penetration helps it exercise control over the people.The present leaders, led by General Secretary Hu Jintao, are called the ‘fourth generation’ leaders after Mao Zedong, Deng Xiaoping and Jiang Zemin. Since they came to the forefront (after the 16th Party Congress in 2002) China has seen much turbulence, including the SARS epidemic of 2003, several mining and industrial accidents and, most significantly, an increasing number of protests (1,20,000 in 2006). All these are clear indicators of the tough challenges facing the leadership.As has been the practice since the late 1990s, the potentially top leaders of the next generation enter the Standing Committee of the Politburo (PBSC) — China’s power centre — five years in advance. The present Standing Committee has nine members and there’s speculation it may be reduced to seven. This would further consolidate Hu’s hold as none of Jiang Zemin’s men would remain in it. Of the seven members, four are likely to be first-timers. Among these four, rumours are that Li Keqiang is likely to take over as Hu’s successor in 2012. Other names, like Tibet Party Secretary Li Wenzhao, Jiangsu Party Chief Li Yuanchao and Trade Minster Bo Xilai , have also been doing the rounds. Li Keqiang has been the party secretary in Liaoning province which had seen the largest number of protests in the past few years. Reports say he handled the protests very well, earning him Beijing’s confidence. The Chinese media has generally refrained from projecting a potential successor to Hu, but a recent issue of the Beijing Review called Li Keqiang and Li Yuanchao the “rising political stars” in the party. Li Keqiang’s personal friendship with Hu gives him an edge. Hu’s successor would be evident almost immediately after the conclusion of the Congress. The successor would be placed fifth in the PBSC and would incrementally acquire key posts which would put him directly behind Hu in the party, state and military hierarchy. Soon he will become the executive secretary of the party, managing its affairs on Hu’s behalf. He would then be appointed president of the Central Party School, a party organ handling ideological matters. Next year he will be made vice-president of the state and, in 2009, appointed vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission, a very important organisation that keeps the People’s Liberation Army under civilian control. This, incidentally, is exactly how Hu Jintao moved up.The Congress is also likely to amend the Constitution to incorporate Hu Jintao’s ideological standpoint which includes his much-publicised theory of ‘harmonious society’ and ‘well-off society’. All of Hu’s predecessors have left behind the imprint of their ideological innovations. Mao Zedong Thought, Deng Xiaoping Theory and Jiang Zemin’s ‘Three Represents’ are today embodied in the Constitution. Hu Jintao would not like to be left behind and his contribution to what is “socialism with Chinese characteristics” has to be recognised. Despite all the growth, modernisation and marketisation, the top leaders prefer to be remembered primarily as Marxist theoreticians.The 17th Congress will also help decide the expansion of party committees, both in number and size. Going by some of Hu’s recent speeches, the issue of corruption is likely to figure in the Congress. A few weeks ago, at a meeting of the Party’s Discipline Inspection Committee, Hu made some scathing remarks about party cadres, by saying that many of them were “luxurious, lusty and corrupt”. At various party forums discussions on ‘democracy’ are taking place. Hu Jintao has made it amply clear that China is not to have ‘western-style democracy’. Interestingly, though, he has stated on several occasions that ‘inner-party democracy’ is the need of the hour. As China moves to groom its fifth generation of leaders, it could send out some significant signals of its future political course.The writer is professor of Chinese Studies, University of Delhi.
