A recent regional conference in Tashkent and high-profile visits to central Asia by Indian functionaries have demonstrated a serious shift in India’s foreign policy direction — enlarging its role in the strategic region.
A modestly aimed but scrupulously planned event by the Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses in the Uzbek capital drew attention to India’s perspective on central Asia, hitherto not accepted among major players. Organised against the backdrop of growing external military forays, including American, NATO, Russian and Chinese presence, it signalled India could not be discounted from the evolving geopolitics of central Asia.
The backdrop also included the current isolation of Pakistan, facing admonition following its attempted export of fanaticism to central Asia. Indian experts skillfully covered the changing international architecture, including intricacies involved in the war against terror.
For central Asian states seeking orientation towards the West and East, the conference gave a glimpse of what the ‘‘South’’ could offer. Team India articulated persuasively the techno-economic-security potential of India, which could be accessed in a cooperative, mutually beneficial partnership.
In many respects, central Asians view India as a beacon of hope and a route to progress in what they perceive as their ‘‘southern arc of instability’’, involving Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Energy security and imperatives for developing transportation corridors draw central Asian attraction to India. The projection of India as a technology major in areas such as energy and infrastructure was revealing.
The event sharpened the need for an inter-dependent ‘‘energy community’’ of suppliers and consumers. Central Asian recognition of the need to diversify energy export routes corresponds with India’s quest for diversifying imports.
External Affairs Minister Yashwant Sinha saw logic in investments for setting up downstream production facilities instead of exporting raw materials through expensive pipelines. This could also help overcome the region’s transport bottlenecks. The suggestion differs from those seeking to pump out central Asia’s riches for gratifying themselves.
India’s air connectivity to landlocked central Asia has improved considerably. As a consequence of central Asian airliners ceasing to fly to Pakistan post-9/11, air traffic between the region and India has notably increased. Tajik Airlines is the most recent to fly to Delhi.
Afghanistan drew attention from both sides. The need for understanding regional underpinnings was re-emphasised. Also sought was a common approach for building a normal society in troubled Afghanistan.
The conference was qualitatively a new step, a shift away from outmoded conduct of cultural diplomacy. Besides this gathering in Tashkent, other high-level visits to Dushanbe, Bishkek and Almaty have enhanced India’s visibility in the strategic region. Certainly, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan should figure more seriously in our policy calculus.
The prime minister’s visit to Kazakhstan in June 2002 led to high expectations of production sharing from some Kazakh oil blocks. These are yet to be realised. Such visits would be futile in the absence of efficient follow up.
It needs to be underlined that complex states in central Asia cannot be equated with those in Africa and Latin America. Careful handling through staff equipped with specialised area knowledge is necessary.
(The authors are with the Delhi-based IDSA)