Caution. Danger ahead

While India and Pakistan have put on a brave face over the lack of progress in the talks between Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and President Musharraf in New York on Wednesday night, there is no doubt that the peace process has entered a dangerous moment. Peace processes are often compared to riding a bicycle. Stop pedaling, and you fall down. At New York, Singh and Musharraf came close to a pause in the peace process. At the heart of the current difficulty is managing the complex linkage between India’s concerns on cross-border terrorism and Pakistan’s interest in Indian political gestures on Kashmir.

The indications are that Pakistan has sought measures such as Indian troop reduction and internal ceasefire in Kashmir in return for controlling the flow of cross-border infiltration in recent weeks. Hardliners in the Indian establishment have insisted that Delhi cannot act without evidence of an extended commitment on the part of Pakistan to bring down violence in Kashmir. On the face of it, India’s wait and watch attitude seems sensible. But failing to act at this moment could only lend credence to those in Pakistan who argue that India will never respond to its gestures on terrorism and that removing the gun will leave India with no incentive to talk on Kashmir. Taking even small steps, in contrast, could help create a positive atmosphere in Kashmir and isolate those committed to violence, who are just waiting for things to go wrong.

For the moment, though, Pakistan has enough to show in terms of the Indian engagement with the Hurriyat leaders in Kashmir. Islamabad is pleased that India has found a way to “associate” the Kashmiris with the peace process. This hopeful mood could easily sour if scepticism overwhelms hope in the Indian establishment. Scepticism, while sounding tough-minded, will make the peace process vulnerable to both its enemies and to acts of god. India and Pakistan, however, have an opportunity to pedal again when the external affairs minister, Natwar Singh, visits Pakistan early next month and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh will hopefully find time to travel to Islamabad later in the year. But if Manmohan Singh lets mindless scepticism take charge of the Pakistan policy, it will only be a matter of time before the peace process unravels. Wrecking a peace process is always easy. But starting all over again is not.