Bush’s South Asia policy is music to Indian ears

If anything, initial pointers from the administration, contained in Secretary of State Colin Powell’s testimony before the Senate, argue for an even stronger engagement with India.

While advocating such a heightened engagement and a lifting of sanctions against India, Powell also added “while not neglecting our friends in Pakistan”. The marginal and seemingly off-hand way in which he referred to Washington’s former ally has been a subject of speculation in South Asian circles, as also the use of the expression “our friends in Pakistan”.

The picture emerging from Washington in recent days suggests that the U.S is willing to back the moderate elements in Pakistan as long as they show some nerve against the tide of fundamentalism espoused by the jehadi forces. Absent this resolve, Washington might bear down hard on Islamabad.

In fact, even amid the changeover of administration, Washington has been putting pressure on General Musharraf’s military regime to cool down itsanti-India rhetoric and act against the jehadi forces that are openly espousing terrorism.

In recent days, the General has been talked to by two key US interlocutors, U.S Ambassador to Pakistan William Milam and US Commander of CentCom Gen.Tommy Franks. They are both believed to have conveyed Washington’s concern over runaway activities of the jehadis that are going largely unchecked by the military regime and are even being supported by sections of the Pakistani army and intelligence.

Following such counsel, it appears Gen Musharraf has indeed cooled down the rhetoric. Most noticeably, he said in the immediate aftermath of the Agni test that it would not affect the peace process. More recently, he said relations with India are improving despite the ongoing diplomatic fracas, the first time he has indicated such a positive sentiment.

It is entirely possible that Musharraf’s sudden diplomatic sobriety is linked to the next tranche of IMF aid to Pakistan, talks on which are expected to begin shortly. The international community, led by Washington, has made it clear that bailing out the Pakistani economy, headed for rack and ruin, depends on the response by Islamabad to New Delhi’s peace initiatives.

In Washington, Pakistani mandarins seem to have realised quickly that the change of administration is not about to bring a change of policy vis-a-vis Islamabad. If anything, the going could get tougher.

Giving her own spin to Powell’s testimony, the Pakistani Ambassador in Washington, Maleeha Lodhi, suggested at a meeting that the Secretary of State would act as a “facilitator”. But US officials quickly rejected the notion, pointing that Powell had not spoken of being a facilitator in the India-Pakistan context.

In fact, senior officials of the Bush Administration, including National Security Advisor Condoleeza Rice, have been more forthright than any Clinton regime mandarins in advocating increased importance to India, virtually delinking Pakistan from the equation. If anything, Powell’s remarks indicated an even greater marginalisation of Pakistan from Indo-U.S ties.

Islamabad’s hopes that some of its patrons from the Cold War era might return to the corridors of power and give it a sympathetic hearing is also being belied. The passage of time and history and India’s own growth as a secular, responsible and self-confident economic powerhouse appears to have brought about a change of heart even among the cold warriors.

In a recent interview, Richard Armitage, a former Reagan and Bush era policy heavyweight who is widely tipped to be Powell’s deputy, said the key elements of Republican foreign policy would be the management of the rise of two great powers — China and India — and the decline of Russia.

“We acknowledge the desire and right of India and China to take a place on the world stage. A benign, stable and economically healthy addition to the world stage will be most welcome,” Armitage said. Other Bush administration officials are also expressing similar sentiments.

While Armitage is tipped to become the Deputy Secretary of State, Edward Djerijian, an Armenian-American foreign policy expert whose sympathy does not lie with Islamist forces, is tipped to succeed Tom Pickering as the undersecretary.

Powell has also said that he will bring in only a few political appointees into the State Department. That would put the department’s career diplomat, Matt Daley, in line to head the State Department’s South Asia bureau. Daley has been a key part of the Indo-U.S dialogue over the past couple of years and his elevation would be welcomed in New Delhi.