Bush’s men come calling with terror stick—and carrots

That clout will be backed up with hard intelligence about what’s really happening among forces on the ground and alarming projections about what could lie ahead if war erupts, according to Bush administration officials.

But Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage and Defence Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld will also be asking both countries to make tough choices — and holding out carrots if they cooperate.

Their most stark message will be for Pakistan, where both begin their missions. Armitage, known for his blunt talk and intricate knowledge of South Asia, intends to lay it on the line with Pak President Percez Musharraf, US officials say.

He’ll call for an immediate end to infiltration by extremists across the Line of Control and a clampdown on the staging areas they use for attacks on targets in the Kashmir Valley. In exchange, the United States will tell Musharraf that he stands to make gains — not necessarily in Kashmir but on other fronts.

‘‘He’ll have a chance for a new position in the world, as leader of the moderate Muslim world, and in new economic assistance through continuing debt relief … that we can offer him,’’ said a senior State Department official who asked to remain anonymous.

‘‘If we can work with him on ending support for violence, then that’s the kind of country we can do business with.’’

On their second stops, Armitage and then Rumsfeld will urge India to show restraint while giving Pakistan a chance to rein in militants and cut their access to Kashmir.

Once that process shows significant progress, India should reciprocate by de-escalating its military readiness in the area, the US officials will advise.

Armitage and Rumsfeld will concentrate on these delicate initial steps, while outlining possible follow-up steps if the two nations adhere to the efforts to defuse hostilities, the senior State Department official said.

Secretary of State Colin L. Powell has indicated that the US will try to prod the two nations into a face-to-face political dialogue on the future of Kashmir. India does not want the United States to mediate the issue, while Pakistan is eager to have Washington play a direct role, as it has in the Middle East.

Said a senior State Department official: ‘‘We would like to see a dialogue with all issues on the table, and we might even be able to contribute some ideas.’’

But for the United States, the hardest task — and the key to ensuring that the current tensions don’t quickly flare up again — will be getting Musharraf to hold the line against militants.

Regional experts say Musharraf must be told that he can no longer take half-measures — and that the only way out of the current crisis is by taking the same tough stance toward militants in Kashmir that he did with pro-Taliban extremists along his nation’s border with Afghanistan.

Says Michael Krepon of the Stimson Center: ‘‘(Pak needs to be told) that this policy (of infiltration) is failing Pakistan. It’s not helping Kashmiris or rescuing Kashmir from India’s grasp. … If it continues, it could spark a nuclear exchange and wipe out millennia of Muslim accomplishments.’’

On an issue assuming increasing prominence, the United States could also encourage India to take action on human-rights concerns in Kashmir.

Key Indian police units, some made up of former militants who changed sides, have been behind a good deal of the abuse in the disputed region, Krepon said.

These units could be disbanded and individual soldiers accused of rapes and other violations prosecuted as a way to show India takes basic rights seriously, a key demand by Pakistan.