On January 4th Nancy Pelosi becomes the first woman speaker of the House of Representatives, and the painful last phase of George Bush’s presidency will begin. As control of both chambers of Congress passes to the recently elected Democrats, Mr Bush will become not just a lame duck but also a crippled one, able to act freely only in foreign and defence policy — which is where, thanks to his blunders in Iraq, his most intractable problems lie. Ms Pelosi is preparing to torment the president with some subtlety. In her first 100 hours in the job, she aims to use her 31-seat majority in the House to pass a raft of measures which. Mr Bush will cordially dislike, but will find it tricky to veto. These include a substantial hike in the minimum wage, the promotion of stem-cell research . and the cutting of subsidies to the oil industry. Ms Pelosi also promises to tighten up the rules on pork-barrel politicking — a humiliating reproach to the Republicans, on whose watch congressional sleaze has notoriously worsened. Mr Bush will probably have to swallow all this and more in the shape of, for instance, blocked trade deals. This is not just because he knows that the Democrats’ programme is modest and popular, but also because he now needs the Democrats’ co-operation if he is to amass any sort of domestic-policy legacy in the 746 days he will have left when Ms Pelosi takes up the gavel.One cherished, and praiseworthy, goal of the president’s is to achieve a just and economically literate solution to the problem of illegal immigration in America. The current system makes criminals of some 12m people who only want to work hard and on whose efforts large parts of the economy now depend. Mr Bush would also like to find a way to ensure that the tax cuts he enacted in his first years in office do not expire entirely, as they are currently scheduled to do, in 2010. And, most necessary of all, Mr Bush wants to make some progress towards tackling America’s gathering health-care crisis.None of this can be achieved without the Democrats. So Iraq is, potentially, a triple problem for Mr Bush as his presidency moves into its final quarter. First, it is the largest and hardest issue he has to deal with, consuming most of his attention and bringing down most of the criticism heaped upon him. Second, presidents saddled with hostile congresses often try to salvage their reputations abroad; but the ramifications around the world of America’s slow defeat in Iraq make it hard for Mr Bush to do that.Excerpted from ‘The Economist’, January 4
