Build-up begins, monsoon landfall in Kerala on June 1

The timing is critical for crops. Last year, it arrived a week late, affecting the sowing season. According to Akhilesh Gupta, director, National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, seven out of their nine forecasting models indicate that SW monsoon will arrive on time.

Winds have started to blow in the westerly direction, as is required for the monsoon build-up. Normally, the winds over the Bay flow at 15-18 kmph. Now they are whistling at double this speed, thus increasing the kinetic energy over the cool Bay of Bengal.

The winds will now collect more moisture and persistent rainfall activity is expected over Bay island areas in the next few days.

‘‘All these suggest that the monsoon is in the offing. At this point it is possible to say that it is going to hit the Indian coast on time,’’ said Gupta.

There is another phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean which is influencing the Indian monsoon. A typhoon, called Chanchu, is likely to cross north of Hong Kong on May 18. Once it weakens, the activity over the Bay of Bengal is likely to increase, accelerating the monsoon currents.