BJP sharpens its claws in anticipation

With speculation rife that Prime Minister IK Gujral might recommend dissolution of the Lok Sabha before the Congress withdraws support, the BJP is now pinning its hopes on a split in the Congress. The situation is fluid at the moment but, according to sources, the BJP’s current strategy hinges on Sharad Pawar and his ability to muster at least 60 to 70 Congress MPs. Other Congress leaders who are being viewed as weak spots in the party are G Venkatswamy and Vijaya Bhaskar Reddy.

The BJP is trying to replicate its success in Uttar Pradesh at the Centre – Split the Congress, get the support of smaller regional parties (like the DMK, TDP and AGP) and cobble a majority to form a government.

If this is not possible, the BJP has other options like supporting a government formed by a breakaway Congress group. BJP leaders admit that there may be many Congress MPs who would be willing to leave the parent party but not align with the BJP. In any case, a split in the Congress would be an incomparable boost to the BJP’s elections prospects.

However, if the Congress splits it will only be if it seems that the Lok Sabha will be dissolved and that there is a possibility of forming another government now.

Sources said that so far, Pawar has been unable to muster numbers. But this could change if there is a threat of general elections. In a significant move, Pawar stayed away from the meeting of the Congress Working Committee on November 9. But he is expected to attend tomorrow’s CPP meeting. Sources said that he is likely to take a hard line on the Jain Commission report and insist that the government act on the report.

Political observers believe that it would not be difficult for Pawar to work with the BJP. He has done it before. In 1978, Pawar formed a government in Maharashtra with the Janta Party of which the Jan Sangh was a part. Again, from 1980 until 1986 Pawar’s Congress-S and the BJP tactically supported each other as part of the Progressive Democratic Front.