Bite the ballot

Indeed, five years from now, the Q-League is unlikely to be in the electoral contest as a party.

While it will be sometime before psephologists can systematically work out the trends in this election, some broad strands are visible.

First, the voter wanted to punish Musharraf and that meant voting for the opposition parties. To that extent, we have seen the two major parties, the Pakistan Peoples Party and the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, picking up their traditional vote and more.

Second, and this flows from the first, both parties have done well in their respective strongholds of Sindh (PPP) and Punjab (PMLN). The PPP has also done well for the provincial seats in the NWFP and in Punjab. Its showing in the Punjab could be better if the party had campaigned more aggressively in the province after Benazir Bhutto’s assassination.

Third, the PMLN has done much better than even the Sharif brothers could have expected. This is owed to Nawaz Sharif’s consistent stand on the issues of the deposed judges, amendments to the constitution and even Musharraf’s re-election. Additionally, with the Jama’at-e-

Islami boycotting the election, some percentage of the right-of-centre vote in the urban areas has also gone to the PMLN. That, again, is not unprecedented.

Four, the Q-League candidates who have won mostly belong to the category of what are known as ‘electables’. For reasons of clan and kinship bonds as well as being scions of entrenched political families, these candidates are expected to win regardless of which party they belong to. However, given the drubbing the Q-League stalwarts have got, it appears that the voter had decided to bring down the core Q-League team of Musharraf’s.

Five, in punishing Musharraf, the voter has generally voted on the basis of party affiliation and ideological leaning. This shows that Musharraf’s policy of keeping both the major parties on the periphery and create a third political force — that is, the Q-League — did not succeed. However, this observation must be tempered by the political events since March 9, 2007 and the action of November 3 last year.

Six, the NWFP has shown that the voter was unhappy with the mullah rule in that province. The JI did not partake of the elections but the JUIF seems to have fallen victim to a perception that Fazlur Rahman is a politician who uses religion as a political device; moreover, that he is as profane in his ambition as any other politician. There is also a likelihood that the JI cadres voted against the JUIF candidates to teach Rahman a lesson. In any case, the anti-incumbency factor, vote split and the incline in the fortunes of the Awami National Party seem to have redounded to the JUIF’s disadvantage.

The next parliament will be well hung, no pun intended, and it may not work smoothly. Consider.

While the PPP has indicated that it could live with Musharraf, two factors could militate against a modus vivendi. Musharraf in a recent interview has not only regretted giving relief to the Bhutto-Zardari duo on corruption cases, he has also made his intentions of remaining the Grand Patriarch quite clear. It is unlikely that any new prime minister would accept that.

Another variable is the strong presence of the PMLN. It will be astonishing if Sharif were to retract his stand on the thorny issues of restoration of judges, amendments to the constitution and Musharraf’s re-election. If the PPP decides to go into a coalition with the PMLN, it will face pressure on that count. It should be clear that on all these issues the PMLN will have the support of civil society (including the lawyers) as well as those political actors that chose to boycott the elections. It will be a tough call for the PPP.

Circumstances and repeated miscalculations by Musharraf might have brought the two parties together but there is nothing innately common between them ideologically. The PMLN was quietly playing second fiddle to the PPP until February 18. Its showing is likely to change that. Any coalition means the PMLN will ask for a price for cooperation that may be prohibitive for the PPP. Cabinet slots and even the office of the prime minister could be other problem areas.

The other option for the PPP, of shaking hands with the Q-League, is a big negative. Politics is the art of the possible, but this is tagged ‘impossible’. In any case, were the PPP to do that, it would face a formidable opposition led by the PMLN. Not only that, it would also fall foul of the people who have voted against Musharraf.

The only way for the system to work, even if creakily, is for Musharraf to leave the scene. That would take care of all the thorny issues the PMLN and the rejectionists are holding aloft and which have the potential of keeping Pakistan unstable despite the vote.

Musharraf can either bow out after further rounds of instability or do the decent thing now and accept that he has overstayed his welcome and it is time for the new dispensation to get down to the task of entrenching constitutionalism and democracy, stabilising the economy and helping the army fight a growing internal threat.

KSE 100 reacted bullish on February 19 to the holding of elections and the Q-League’s defeat by gaining almost 443 points. The rupee also registered a gain against the dollar. Musharraf should take heed of how the market reacts to any hope of stability.

The writer is Op-Ed Editor, ‘Daily Times’, Lahore The views expressed are his own sapper@dailytimes.com.pk