What is not going to be on President Clinton's agenda in New Delhi becomesclear with every passing day. His assurances at a press conference inWashington on Thursday should quieten lingering suspicion in politicalquarters in India that there will be an attempt to meddle in Kashmir.Suspicion of the US still dies hard in this country and so it is as wellthat Clinton said the US will not mediate and that it would be fruitless totry, unless requested to by both India and Pakistan. That is what Washingtonhas been saying for quite some time in response both to Islamabad's demandsfor international intervention and India's sensitivity about anything thatsmacks of third party interference. Clint-on's restatement of the Americanposition on mediation does not preclude all discussion of Kashmir.It is bound to feature in the context of India's concern about cross-borderterrorism and American urging of a resumption of the bilateral dialogue. Butthe India-US relationship has improved enough for both sides to understandthat American good offices will not be sought or offered.The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty is off the agenda too. Nothing has beensaid officially about this in New Delhi or Washington. However the signs inthe two capitals are that the CTBT is dead for the time being.In India there is little evidence of the Vajpayee government working aspromised to achieve a political consensus. On the contrary the signs arethat the groundwork is being prepared for a hardening of the officialposition on the treaty.The RSS, whose influence on the BJP is quite considerable, opposes the CTBTand has, reportedly, told the government in categorical terms not to signit. Earlier several senior scientists argued against the treaty, saying thegovernment should not close all possibility of testing in future. Washingtonappears to have received the message. This week, the director of the US armscontrol and disarmament agency, John Holum, admitted that there is no hopeof getting an Indian signature during the presidential visit.With so much heavy stuff off the agenda, what is the centrepiece of thevisit going to be? Were US presidents in the habit of dropping in,expectations would not be very high. But both sides will want something toshow for this first presidential visit in 22 years. Broadly, it is beingseen as a way to get past Pokharan-II and demonstrate a closer understandingbetween the two countries. Differences exist and will doubtless be aired. India should certainly use the opportunity to push for fairer global traderules. Murasoli Maran should be encouraged to repeat his excellent ``Trojanhorse'' speech to the Americans and raise the issue of more visas for Indianprofessionals. Any time left over will go on Pakistan and the menace ofinternational terrorism. There is much to talk about but nothing that atthis stage appears to be of greater significance than the fact of the visititself. That is a coup the Vajpayee government has already pulled off.Clinton will be talking to the converted if he makes democracy or marketreforms his main focus. He can be expected to make obligatory noises aboutnon-proliferation but will be unconvincing. In the end the only publicrelations prize he can hope for is somehow to facilitate the resumption ofIndia-Pakistan talks. And that will be very tough indeed.
