Baghdad ahead

Karbala Gap is a narrow strip of land, pock-marked by ravines, between the large Rezzazah Lake and the Euphrates River to its East. It was expected that the Iraqi army would make a stand in this area, and in a worse case scenario, could open the floodgates from the lake to block the American advance. The armour thrust to gain the Karbala Gap appears to have taken the Iraqis by near complete surprise and, till the late evening on Wednesday, there were no reports of any direct fighting between the Medina Division and the US 3rd Infantry Division units.

The only opposition that American troops came across were the militiamen with anti-tank weapons in trucks as has been the case in the battles so far. Most of the Iraqi forces were small size and do not appear to have prepared defensive positions north of the city.

In another coordinated manoeuvre, the US 1st Marine Division rolled north from Nasiriya through the central region and punched east toward the eastern Baghdad-Basra highway. Lead elements of the Division were reported along the Tigris River, south of Kut. Reports claiming that the Baghdad Division of the Republican Guard tasked to defend the southeastern approaches to Baghdad was badly mauled by the Marines, and ‘‘destroyed’’ to a level that it is no longer capable of fighting may be overstated. The two American Divisions would link up in due course before they move on Baghdad in a two-pronged attack. However, the actual attack on Baghdad is still a long way off. There simply are not enough forces in the area for an attack on the capital nearly a hundred kilometres to the north. The terrain is much more densely populated agricultural land which would afford greater opportunities for small units of regular and irregular Iraqi forces to offer resistance. On the other hand, the weapons and equipment of the US 4th Infantry Division are being offloaded in Kuwait and would take another 10-14 days to be in operational locations.

Meanwhile, the Anglo-American forces have yet to capture and control the cities and towns that now lie along the axis of their advance. The British forces are still on the outskirts of Basra, although that is unlikely to affect the course of the war in the north. US forces have not gained full control of Nasiriya after more than ten days of fierce fighting and would need to establish more bridges across the Euphrates to provide support to the forces further north. Apparently there is a shortage of pontoons to set up the additional bridges and this also must wait re-supply which could come in by mid-April. But the key factor that would have a major influence on the course of fighting in the coming days would still be the question of controlling the main cities in central and south Iraq.

The two holy cities of Najaf and Karbala still hold the political key, if not so much of a military one. While US forces have entered Najaf, they have yet to establish control over the city. Further north, they have bypassed Karbala to take the Gap to the north of it. But serious difficulties would be encountered if they do not control the city. And as has been the experience so far, urban fighting and civilian casualties would remain the key factor in the war.

(Air Commodore (retd) Jasjit Singh, editorial consultant to The Indian Express, will analyse the war daily. Readers can send their queries to him at jasjitsingh@expressindia.com)