Bad news for Indo-US ties

The sharpest discontinuity is likely to come in relations with the US and possibly with US allies such as Israel. India has become a leading customer for Israeli weapons technology. With Mr Vajpayee in office, the Bush administration hoped that India might be persuaded to send peacekeepers to Iraq — a remarkable shift from the Cold War, when India proudly led the Non-Aligned Movement and seized every opportunity to tweak American leadership. The Congress-led coalition is expected to swing back to traditional anti-Americanism, sounding off against the US at the UN and perhaps challenging US influence in the Middle East by launching its own peace initiative. All of which would test the Bush administration’s reserves of forbearance and tact. But then again, who knows? India’s democracy excels at defying expert predictions.

— The Washington Post

Offline India’s verdict
There is nothing revolutionary about yesterday’s vote to oust the Hindu nationalist government. It was a massive vote of confidence in India’s democratic system, a vote which swept aside declarations of a surging economy, a bountiful monsoon, a foreign policy success in the start of a rapprochement with Pakistan, and a slick campaign by the outgoing government which played on the feelgood factor: ‘‘India Shining’’. If the online, urban rich were feeling radiant about themselves, offline India wanted to feel a bit of the reflected warmth of this success itself.

For Sonia Gandhi, the vote is a stunning achievement. Not least because the daughter of a Italian builder, who hails from a village outside Turin, climbed to the top of a political system infamous for its xenophobia. The outgoing Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party included an attack on Mrs Gandhi’s foreign origins in its manifesto and had suggested changes to the election law barring foreigners from holding high office.

If this was a protest vote against Coca Cola consuming the aquifers of Kerala, or Monsanto being awarded the patents for wheat used for making chapatis, then Congress will be hard put to respond. It sees nothing wrong and much right in neo-liberalism. But the genuinely good news of this result is what this vote was against. The BJP were not just voted out of power, they were drummed out of it. In Gujarat, where more than 1,000 Muslims were killed by Hindu mob violence, the BJP lost half its seats, despite attempts by Atal Behari Vajpayee to reach out to India’s 140 million Muslims. This too was a vote against nationalism and sectarianism. If Mrs Gandhi uses this mandate, it may herald a new era in Indian politics.

— The Guardian

Reforms must continue
The BJP failed not because it tried to reform the economy. Rather, it lost because it didn’t do so quickly or thoroughly enough in a country impatient for change. The explosive growth in manufacturing and services has been an extraordinary success story. But at times it seemed to forget that there’s far more to India, and liberalising its economy, than the big cities that have benefited from the reforms so far.

It is sobering to note, for example, that for all the ire India has attracted from US politicians over outsourcing, reports are that the number of such jobs add up to just 1 million or so. India’s total workforce, however, numbers 400 million people, and each year 10 million more are added. India shines for a small portion of the country’s 1 billion people and perhaps the boom in some urban areas has only further highlighted India’s gaping inequalities. Those left in the dust decided to toss out the party. Any comprehensive reform policy also had to address agriculture, in a country where more than two-thirds of the population depends on farming, and that is where Mr Vajpayee’s government failed.

With the Congress set to take over, it must be hoped it has learned from the BJP’s successes. The early signs are worrying. As an Opposition party, Congress often opposed reform measures to burnish its credentials with the poor. Moreover, it counts Leftist and Communist parties among its backers. To be sure, these are early days. It’s worth remembering that the reform movement that Mr Vajpayee’s government continued was in fact begun by the Congress. But it would be even more reassuring if the Congress would make a public break with free-spending election pledges. The party would do well to bear in mind that the BJP lost because it didn’t pursue reforms vigorously enough. Any party that fails to continue the momentum of reform is likely to suffer at the next polls.

— The Wall Street Journal

Vajpayee’s legacy
Liberalising economic policies carried out under Mr Atal Behari Vajpayee’s Bharatiya Janata Party government have given India statistically impressive economic growth. Yet in a country where poor people vote in large numbers, most of them remain unimpressed. Along with the coalition’s drubbing came the equally unexpected revival of the long-fading Congress Party under its Italian-born leader, Sonia Gandhi. Mrs Gandhi, the widow and daughter-in-law of assassinated prime ministers, capitalised on her family name. But she also benefited from uneasiness over economic change and a backlash against the BJP’s religious divisiveness.

If the Congress leads the next government, it should press ahead with market reforms while broadening their benefits. The party will also need to reinforce India’s secularism, reassuring Muslims and members of other minority faiths that religious freedom will be fully protected. Another priority should be following through on Mr Vajpayee’s welcome steps to reduce tensions with Pakistan and to resolve the Kashmir conflict peacefully. With India and Pakistan both armed with nuclear weapons, this issue, which has sparked repeated full-scale wars, cannot be left to fester.

Mr Vajpayee can generally be proud of his six years in office. He has been a moderating force within his party, and history is likely to judge his economic policies and his diplomatic initiatives favourably. As the leader of the longest-serving non-Congress Party government, Mr Vajpayee helped lead India toward a more competitive multi-party democracy. India’s voters can now choose between two national parties and a multitude of regional groups. This sometimes results in weak coalition governments and stop-and-start reforms. But it demonstrates the underlying vitality of India’s democracy.

— The New York Times