As Musharraf ratings go down, Oppn begins to believe it may win election

If Musharraf’s allies do not succeed in rigging the election results in their favour, such broad-based support could give the opposition enough seats in the new parliament for the two-thirds majority needed to impeach the president.

“If coalition of revenge gets a two-thirds majority, he’s done. Absolutely done,” said C. Christine Fair, a senior political analyst at the RAND Corp.

The poll results are the latest in a series of troubling indicators for Musharraf. In recent months, he has suspended the Constitution, fired many judges of the Supreme Court and engineered a legally dubious re-election in his quest to stay in power.

While the Constitution has since been restored, Musharraf’s repeated crackdowns against political opponents, the judiciary and the mass media have turned the public against him. A year ago, most Pakistanis supported him. Now, three-quarters say they want him to resign.

The poll of 3,845 adults was conducted Jan 19-29 and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 1.69 percentage points.

“I don’t know if his numbers could go any lower”, said Robert Varsalone, country director for the institute. “He’s probably at his floor.”

Varsalone and another staffer for the institute, which includes prominent Republicans on its board, were forced to leave Pakistan last week after the government failed to renew their visas. The group has released a series of polls charting Musharraf’s decline and has come under intense government pressure.

There are widespread fears in Pakistan that Musharraf and his allies will rig next Monday’s vote. But the institute’s poll indicated that could be a perilous step. A majority said they would back protests against the government if Musharraf’s party is announced as the winner. Only 14 per cent said they planned to vote for the main pro-Musharraf party, the Pakistan Muslim League-Q.