Projected voteshare estimates have again confirmed that the Congress has been decimated by a clear anti-incumbency vote. The party has polled only 31.6 per cent of the popular vote, down from 40.59 in 1998, its worst performance ever in Madhya Pradesh. The BJP saw its voteshare rising from 39.28 to 42.5 per cent.What is more alarming is that most of these votes went to the ‘others’. This factor clearly indicates that if the Congress cannot regroup quickly, it would be marginalised like in UP. While the figure of 19 seats obtained by the ‘others’ is more or less on par with 1998, the vote percentages are revealing. They account for a staggering 26 per cent of the vote, up from 19 per cent in 1998.Though the SP gained the highest number of seats, most of these were won by candidates on their own strength. The surprise, and a source for worry for the Congress, has been the performance of the Gondwana Gantantra Party (GGP) which won three seats and was second in four seats. It has destroyed the core block of Gond votes that has always stood by Congress.In the Bhil belt, the RSS has successfully made inroads by ‘Hinduising’ Bhils. The Dalit vote also had traditionally gone to the Congress before the BSP made inroads. But this election has seen the BSP self-destruct.With the BJP cornering OBC votes, the Congress is faced with a quandary. The state Congress needs a revamp. The time for upper caste leadership seems to have gone. With Digvijay out of the running, the mediocre second-rung leadership leaves just one person — Subhash Yadav, an OBC — as their best bet. But it is not clear whether Congress’ best bet will be good enough.
