After the Dalai Lama, who?

This year marks the 60th anniversary of Tenzin Gyatso’s enthronememt to the seat of Dalai Lama. And an uncomfortable question is gripping the Tibetan community in exile: after the Dalai Lama, who? Pose this question to an elderly Tibetan and the response may be either a blank stare or a scowl. But the question is very real. And it’s been initiated by none but the Dalai Lama himself, who asking the community to think about the road ahead after he’s gone.

And the times ahead do not look too rosy. The Dalai Lama is already 65. The Chinese continue to cold-shoulder him. And the voices demanding a change in strategy are growing louder. Some fear that the next stage of the Tibetan movement may be violent, perhaps even more violent than the Mustang uprising of the 1970s when the CIA was funding and backing the Tibetan resistance.

Young Tibetans, in particular, seem to favour a violent struggle against the Chinese. “It’s very depressing to think of our movement without His Holiness, but I guess we have to think about it,” says an official of the Tibetan government in exile.

This question cropped up all of a sudden when the 17th Karmapa arrived in Dharamshala in January this year. The Tibetans were rejoiced to hear of his escape to freedon, and when the Dalai Lama embraced him in a public function, some even anointed him the Dalai Lama’s successor. Since the Karmapa came to Dharamshala rather than Rumtek in Sikkim, the traditional seat of the Karmapas, it was suggested that he might well be the next leader of the Tibetans in exile.

There are two issues here: Is the Karmapa the third highest spiritual leader after the Dalai Lama and Panchen Lama as reported in the Western media? This view is contested by many. There are four major sects of Tibetan Buddhism — the Nyingma, Sakya, Kagyu and Gelyug, in that order. There are differences over the chronological order as well. While the Dalai Lama — who belongs to Gelyug — is both the spiritual and political head of all Tibetans, the heads of all sects enjoy equal status. “If the Karmapa Lama becomes the next head of Tibetans in exile, there will be opposition from other high lamas like Sakya Tenzin,” says an official.

The other question is: is Urgyen Trinley the real 17th Karmapa Lama? While there is no doubt in the minds of the Tibetan government and people on this, the Indian government seems to have taken a serious note of doubts raised by Shamar Rinpoche, a Kagyu sect Lama, that Urgyen Thinley Dorjee is not the real Karmapa. In fact, Shamar Rinpoche has his own candidate for the Karmapa seat. “I don’t know what is holding the governement of India back from granting asylum to the Karmapa. It’s really frustrating,” says a Tibetan official.

What’s fuelling the frustration is that Beijing is tightening its grip over Tibetan Buddhism. Some years ago, the Chinese kidnapped the Dalai Lama’s nominee for the Panchen Lama seat and appointed the son of a local communist official as the 10th Panchen Lama. “The Chinese know that Tibetan Buddhism is the basis of Tibetan nationalism, and if they control our religion, they can check our nationalism as well,” says the Tibetan official.

Since the Panchen Lama is in Chinese hands, they will use him to select the next Dalai Lama. The Dala Lama too had recently said his reincarnation would logically come from outside Tibet in a free country. “His Holiness has made it clear that he would not be born in occupied Tibet,” says Thupten Samphel, secretary in the department of information and international relations.

If and when the Chinese appoint their own Dalai Lama, it would create a situation where there would be two Panchen Lamas, two Karmapa Lamas and two Dalai Lamas. “This is part of a strategy to create confusion in the community,” says Karma Yeshi, vice-president of Tibetan Youth Congress. That’s why some saw the Karmapa’s arrival in India as part of the Chinese strategy. But most Tibetans in India refuse to buy it. “The day the Dalai Lama said Urgyen Thinley is the real Karmapa, everybody believed it. We have no confusion about the Karmapa,” says activist Sonam Tsering.

With the Karmapa’s arrival in India, the leaders of all four sects of Tibetan buddhism are in this country. This is both a sign of hope and confusion. The Dalai Lama, because of his position, has managed to keep the community together. His absence can lead to a situation where other sects might assert their right to rule.

That’s probably why the Dalai Lama has been asking the community to adopt a democratic form of governance as soon as possible. “This is a unique situation. In other countries, people have fought for democracy. In our case, the leader is asking people to adopt it but they have been shying away,” pointed out Thupten Lungrig, vice-chairperson of the Tibetan Parliament in Dharamshala.

While democracy may not be an attractive option, violence has its charms for man in the community. The chances of the Tibetan movement turning violent after the Dalai Lama are “very high”, says Lhasang Tsering, scholar and a former guerrila who fought the Chinese on the Tibet-Nepal border. But at least for now, there are many young men who won’t talk about it.