A victory to warn UF

Also, Kesri doesn’t appear to be angry with Prime Minister I K Gujral as he was with his predecessor Deve Gowda. “The UF accepted our stand of a change in their leadership and we want to give it our support as long as the interests of the nation and the Congress are kept in mind,” Kesri added.The UF-Congress relationship was dwelt on also in Kesri’s statement. “After the defeat in the general elections the Congress workers faced an identity crisis. The ruling coalition started taking Congress support for granted and Congressmen began to feel sidetracked. But now the party is back to the centrestage of Indian politics and nobody can dare ignore us anymore,” the statement said.Kesri also initiated a first for a Congress president.

He has asked state units to prepare for agitational campaigns in places where non-Congress governments are in place. “In a large number of states, non-Congress political parties are in power. Congress should not hesitate to launch agitational programmes, if necessary, against the anti-people policies of such governments,” his statement said.Bihar, where Laloo Prasad Yadav is currently in trouble over the multicrore fodder scam, could well be one such state, Kesri indicated. It is after a long time that a Congress chief has formally asked partymen to agitate, an exercise the party normally avoids.Ã?SO now, basking in the glow of the biggest victory in Congress history, begins Sitaram Kesri’s last political journey. At the fag end of a long career the man is practically thirsting to get the Congress back to 7, Race Course Road, and it is now a matter of time before I.K. Gujral goes the H.D. Deve Gowda way. This much is pretty clear given the Kesri doctrine of how to revive the Congress, currently at its lowest point in India’s political set-up.

The Kesri doctrine, as opposed to the Gujral doctrine, basically revolves around the simple principle of power begets strength in a party. Kesri believes, probably correctly, given the Congress history over the last few decades, that once in power the party grows and stays in control of things. Out of power, the Congress begins to fade. This is conceptually different from Sharad Pawar’s policy of introspection. Pawar had repeatedly stressed that if he was elected, the Congress would guarantee stability to the United Front Government and concentrate on its own revival for the next two years.This was perhaps one of the reasons for Pawar’s big defeat. Thus, Kesri’s salvo aimed at the Gujral Government is an important indicator of how the new Congress chief will proceed. In a manner of speaking, the Congress has sounded the red alert on the UF. Kesri is unlikely, however, to precipitate any crisis at least until this winter. First, a new President has to be chosen next month and a new Vice-President in August. Then comes the golden jubilee celebrations of India’s independence.

Also, in August the new All India Congress Committee (AICC) and a fresh Congress Working Committee (CWC) have to be constituted. Thus, the political calendar is rather full for Kesri. For the moment, the Kesri camp is in total control and this probably means a bigger role for Sonia Gandhi in the Congress scheme of things. Indications are that Kesri will nominate Sonia Gandhi to the CWC as one of the 10 nominations which can be made to the top decision-making body in the Congress.

Once she accepts this, Sonia will be part and parcel of every decision the party takes from August. It needs to be kept in mind though that Sonia had in the past rejected an invitation from Kesri to join the CWC. The equations within the Congress are never stable or peaceful at the best of times, but Kesri’s colossal victory should make his opponents wary for the time being. Of topical interest is Pawar’s immediate future. He managed 882 votes and if one takes away the 608 votes from Maharashtra, it leaves Pawar with just 274 delegates in his favour in the rest of the country.

That is a worrying figure as it came after Pawar’s first country-wide tour. The former Maharashtra Chief Minister and now the Congress leader in the Lok Sabha put in a strong effort and also released a high-profile party programme which promised to reopen the debate on the Ayodhya dispute and the country’s economic policy. That all this should result in so little is a big blow to Pawar’s aspirations.

In all probability he will lose his position as party leader in the Lok Sabha but there have been some gains too for Pawar from this election. First, he has consolidated his position in Maharashtra despite a determined effort by Kesri and Arjun Singh to undo him in his base. Kesri managed to send Pawar’s critic Murli Deora back as head of the cash-rich Mumbai Regional Congress Committee but Pawar had the last laugh in getting his man Ranjit Deshmukh as head of the Maharashtra PCC. A loss even in Maharashtra would have made Pawar’s position almost untenable in the party.

Secondly, from now on Pawar will remain a central figure in the Congress inner-party politics unlike pre-1996 when Pawar ceded to P.V. Narasimha Rao. Unless he makes several wrong moves, there is still hope for Pawar. Rajesh Pilot, however, has a lot to think about. It is generally agreed that Pilot was positioning himself for the future in the party and that he had no real stakes in this year’s election. The harsh truth is that Pilot managed only 354 votes in his favour.

In the 1991 Tirupati CWC election, Pilot was one of the bigger winners garnering close to 400 votes. Now, only the AICC can elect CWC members and every 10 PCC delegates translate into one AICC vote meaning that Pilot, on paper, has the backing of just 36 potential AICC members. Though actual voting doesn’t follow such simple arithmetic, this is a big fall for Pilot. On his part, Pawar had got more than 300 votes in 1992 but this time his PCC following equals about 89 AICC delegates. This is a huge slide for him too.Kesri has no such problems. The man from Danapur, Bihar, has never had it so good. This was the first direct election he has faced in his life, albeit a party poll, and he won handsomely. To put in some sort of perspective, Kesri victory is big even in comparison with Subhas Chandra Bose in 1939 and Purushottam Das Tandon in 1950, the only two directly elected previous presidents of the Congress.

In both these elections, Congress stalwarts forced out the elected president after infighting. Mahatma Gandhi put pressure relentlessly on Bose who gave in four months after he was chosen leader. Likewise, Nehru actually quit the then CWC in protest against Patel’s nominee winning the election. This led to Tandon stepping down six months after victory. Nehru then took over the party presidency and won his fight against Patel.

Kesri should not have similar headaches as his rivals can hardly match Gandhi or Nehru in stature. This plus the support from Sonia Gandhi, whom Congressmen see as the only charismatic figure in their ranks, should see Kesri breathe easy for some time. It is now up to him to show that he merits a victory of this size and that he was not elected by manipulation.

The heirs apparent

Sonia Gandhi: Still the dark horse. Recently became a primary member of the Congress and obviously doesn’t intend to remain one. Her ascent should be watched, if she nods assent everyone else will kowtow.

n Jitendra Prasada: Handed over the biggest chunk of votes to Kesri and is likely to be made an AICC general secretary in return. May not revive the Congress in Uttar Pradesh but is in for big times.

n R.K. Dhawan: Prasada’s rival for the number two slot. His managerial skills helped Indira Gandhi and now he is with Kesri. Took complete control of the Delhi unit in the party polls thus fulfilling a long-cherished ambition.

Arjun Singh: His unfulfilled dream of being the top Congressman in the country is taking shape again. Sees Kesri as a weak president and fancies his chances. But timing is not his forte.

n K. Vijayabhaskara Reddy: Led the Congress debacle in Andhra Pradesh but outwitted his rivals in the party election. Another likely canditate for AICC general secretary and loves working with a weak party head.

n Sharad Pawar: The Congressman from Maharashtra lost out this time and now faces an uncertain future. As it is, he is terrible at taking decisions and will fall back on his favourite activity making deals.

n A.K. Antony: Mr Clean who is biding his time. He will only move when Karunakaran is finished. But with that likely to take time, Antony is at best a leader in the 21st century.

n Rajesh Pilot: After his debacle, he will slug it out with Madhavrao Scindia in the years to come as the numero uno `young turk’. Prefers playing to the gallery, not yet taken seriously within the party.