A small step for mankind

Pakistan is stalled on a strange bend in the road, not knowing whether it is under martial law or not. And despite the initial overtures of its new chief executive, India is not entirely sure of how to treat Pakistan. The withdrawal of troops from the international border is the stuff of public relations, because General Musharraf has said nothing about the real area of possible conflict, the Line of Control. No one was expecting Pakistan to launch an incursion into Rajasthan, were they? The problematic area is Kashmir and there, he has committed himself to the familiar policy of offering moral and diplomatic support to the putative freedom fighters. India collected some evidence of the effect of such moral support in Kargil. In effect, Musharraf has not given any indication that he is interested in a meaningful dialogue. He is continuing in the best traditions of India-Pakistan diplomacy, directing his words at the Western world and at domestic constituencies, not at the party across the table. And it seemsto have worked with the principal audience of all messages emanating out of Islamabad: the US.

Despite his repeated commitment to democracy, Musharraf has betrayed no interest in quitting office anytime soon. He has given tax defaulters four weeks in which to deposit their tithe, which clearly implies that he will be in office for at least a month. Further, he has launched investigations against former prime minister Nawaz Sharif and into the India-Pakistan sugar deal. Given the alacrity with which the courts move in South Asia, Musharraf is going to be in office for at least a year to consolidate his position. The fundamental changes he intends to implement in the way Pakistan is ruled promise to keep him occupied for several months, if not years. Reform takes its own time to establish itself in the political system, especially reform which involves decentralisation. In the interim, the reluctance of multilateral agencies to continue funding a political system with a poor credit rating will call for somemore firefighting measures. It certainly looks like the brass-hatted gentry will be at the helm of affairs in Pakistan for quite some time. A regime that dismisses its diplomats definitely knows that it is in for a good, long innings.

So, Mr Chief Executive, if the political system you have established amounts to martial law, do bother to spell it out. Though Musharraf insists that he has not imposed military rule, how else is one to construe the absence of a constitution in conjunction with the very visible presence of men in khaki? A regime that dare not speak its own name is difficult to understand end even more difficult to deal with. If it is an interim dispensation, its term must be stated before both India and the people of Pakistan can come to terms with it. Until Musharraf talks explicitly about his intentions and his schedule for change, he will have neither the cooperation of the united people of Pakistan nor that of his immediate neighbour in the subcontinent. The US may no longer be interestedin democracy in South Asia but hopefully, South Asia itself remains committed.