A CMP between Congress and BJP

The fact that survival depends on all of these disparate interests pulling together means that policymaking is a dash from crisis to crisis. No coalition can function if allies constantly threaten to pull down the government. Legitimate reminders about collective cabinet responsibility carry less weight in a weak, fragmented, dysfunctional coalition. Unfortunately, the institutional dynamics are self-reinforcing: the success of smaller parties in driving national agendas that affect constituencies far beyond those that elected them only encourages the emergence of more small parties.

We are at a critical point in this spiral toward political entropy. The renewed activity in the UNPA, the so-called ‘third front’, in the last one week can be seen as a signal of expectations: if it is to be an electoral alliance, it means that the participants must assume that the two mainstream parties taken together will garner less than 50 per cent of the seats in the Lok Sabha. This is the only way that the arithmetic for the third front would justify the formation of the entity. This would be the ultimate demonstration example to accelerate fragmentation.

The broader question is: how does one prevent the hijacking of the national agenda by smaller parties?

The national interest can only be served if the two mainstream parties acknowledge and strengthen common ground on issues of national concern. Governments in power usually blame opposition parties for not cooperating adequately, often even when cooperation is the necessity. The NDA complained about the opposition Congress party when it was in office, even though it did secure their cooperation ultimately in areas like electricity, insurance and several legislations to strengthen the financial sector. Under the old rules of the game, it seemed a useful device for shifting attention and a way to shore up internal solidarity by creating an opposition — an enemy.

But this business-as-usual has been particularly unproductive in an era when parties not in the opposition don’t cooperate adequately. The charade can go too far. Congress spurned any offer from them earlier in the tenure of this government for legislations on pension, insurance and several other reforms that were initiated earlier in the mistaken belief that the Left would find such cooperation unacceptable and suspicion would be sowed in the relationship with coalition partners. As it turns out, the Left has not cooperated anyway!

So what should be the contours of restoring trust between the two mainstream parties, namely the BJP and the Congress?

First, establish credible leadership to open the negotiations. The prime minister is a key player, who must be able to, and be perceived to be able to, speak for himself. The media storm about the prime minister is not meaningless. It does demonstrate clearly the need to ensure that an incumbent prime minister has multiple sources of legitimacy — experience, a strong electoral base among voters, and/or a strong working rapport across parties — to draw on. And it does highlight the potential that our system has for de facto divided authority. The prime minister need not always be the ruling party head, but we should ensure that the party head does not overshadow the prime minister.

It would be hard to write formal rules to prevent the institution from being compromised by personalities, but we should at least have the collective common sense not to repeat this kind of dynamic.

Second, clean up the past quickly so that it does not overshadow the more substantive present and future reasons to cooperate. The Congress may have to pay a price for their mistaken spurning of past BJP overtures, but the BJP will have to accept this payment with maturity rather than prolong the transaction with petulance.

And third, focus on to the substance rather than the drama surrounding it. There are important issues on which parties do have common ground. A Common Minimum Programme between the Congress and the BJP would have greater operational relevance than any other document. It could cover security, terrorism, foreign policy approach, as well as some key reforms like electricity, and Centre-state relations on which bipartisan support is necessary.

The stakes are high. What is now a story of one man’s reputation could otherwise become one of a country’s.