A bigger, bolder policy

This stand, which only repeats Jinnah’s arguments, is also so unfair to the desperate attempts being made by Ayatollah Ali Sistani to move his country to as secular a democracy as is possible in the volatile Middle East region. We have our own volatile region in Kashmir, where the strategy of the Indian Republic has been to push political democracy on the Kashmiri people. They too have seen a partial boycott of the democratic process, mainly by a coalition of Sunni fundamentalists whose real grouse is quite different from their ostensible

complaint. In Kashmir, fundamentalists fear that in a fair election they would simply disappear, so they want to shift it to a vote on religion. The Iraqi Sunnis have a replica of the same strategy. The first Iraqi election produced a voter turnout of 58 per cent in an election marred by violence and forty deaths. In the first election held after Governor’s Rule in Kashmir, the voter turnout was considerably less, but that election led to the next one which gave the present government. Today no one in India would question the democratic credentials of the Mufti government.

The Iraqi Constitution is to be written by August 2005, five months after the election results were announced and submitted for a national referendum by mid-October. If the Sunnis missed their chance to vote in the election, they may have a chance to register their feelings in the referendum. The Shias are already voting in a split fashion, apart from fielding a number of Sunni and Kurd candidates in the United Iraqi-Alliance. So the overall pattern that emerges in Iraq is not far different from the victory of the Congress in the first Indian election, or the victory of Mufti’s party in the J&K elections.

What is most daunting is the timeline for the Iraqi democratic process. If the referendum approves the constitution in October 2005, the Iraqi people will vote in another general election on December 15 and a new government is to be installed by December 31. The challenging deadlines are probably set so the Americans can begin to hand over power and commence their withdrawal sooner rather than later. The government that emerges in Iraq will be democratic, perfectly legal and enjoy broad-based popular support. Indians have often pointed out the fact that of the hundreds of jihadi terrorists arrested world-wide, none was an Indian Muslim. It is time for Indian analysts to also recognise that none of the 19 involved in the World Trade Center bombing was a Shiite.

The winds are changing in the region and New Delhi needs to acknowledge the change sooner. Even Saudi Arabia is beginning to change. In the first ever elections in Saudi Arabia, for half the seats in all municipal councils, it is an even chance that some Shiite candidates might get elected in the eastern territories. Added to these changes are the exciting possibilities of a Palestinian settlement with the courageous Abbas leading his people. The Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon might even see the transformation of the Hezbollah into a full-fledged political party.

The Congress party was asked to make a difficult choice immediately after coming to power on whether to help in Iraqi peacekeeping efforts. The decision, eventually, was to play it cautiously. Foreign policy can always be run on the principle of ‘‘wait and see’’ but that will only produce successful diplomats, not a successful foreign policy.

On India’s access to high-tech military technology, the American offer today is stunning. Our thirty year old complaint that the NPT, the NSG and the dual use technology denial regimes have targeted India has now been rubbished with the American offers of joint production of world class combat aircraft. This is not to be mistaken for a hardware sale, but a realisation that the Americans can live with a regional power like India, which operates F18s, the P3Cs, and the SU30 MKI.

The UN restructuring committee’s report recommends that nations join the PSI, a decision long pending in Delhi and Washington. Secretary Rice’s visit is to be followed by visits of the treasury and transportation secretaries, leading to visits by both heads of states. India’s aspiration to be a regional power has found acceptance in Washington, and quite possibly with the EU and Japan. With this status come responsibilities, and a willingness to shed the diplomatic autarky that may have served us well earlier. A number of new initiatives have to be taken that go beyond the charter of the desk officers in the MEA. Political management is also called for, particularly with many ex-ministers, now in the Opposition, making opportunistic statements that disadvantage the country, to benefit their party. This journey must leave Pakistan behind, and if twenty-four F16s make Pakistan feel secure, all the better.