PUNE, May 25: India Meteorological Department has forecast a ``normal'' monsoon for the 11th successive year in the country.Announcing the long range forecast for 1998 today, IMD stated that the rainfall over the country as a whole for the entire monsoon season (June to September) is likely to be normal.The onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala is expected to be around its normal date of June 1.Quantitatively, the rainfall over the country as a whole for the entire southwest monsoon season is likely to be 99 per cent of its long period average, with an estimated model of + or - 4 per cent.Last year, the monsoon season rainfall in India was recorded as 102 per cent as against 92 per cent predicted by the department.The monsoon rainfall during the four months of June to September for the country as a whole is defined as ``normal'' when it is within + or - 10 per cent of its long period average, which is 88 cm. This definition of normal rainfall is based on the nature of the statistical variation of monsoon rainfall from year to year.IMD's operational long range prediction model uses 16 regional and global land-ocean-atmosphere parameters which are physically related to the Indian monsoon rainfall. Each model is defined in terms of observations over a specific location and period antecedent to the monsoon.This year 9 out of the 16 model parameters are favourable and indications from the Parametric Model are that the southwest monsoon rainfall for 1998 is likely to be normal.
