Daily Briefing: US sanctions Russian oil firms, India’s move next

🚨 Big Story

To buy or not to buy, that is the question. India’s Russian oil dilemma may come to a head after the latest round of US-imposed sanctions on two of Russia’s largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. The development comes after US President Donald Trump said talks with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, to end the war in Ukraine went inconclusive.

Zoom in: India has become the second-largest importer of Russian oil, largely due to Moscow’s significant discounts. The US has criticised India for “funding” Putin’s war in Ukraine, which began in 2022. The Trump administration even penalised India with a 25 per cent additional tariff, as a way to force the Kremlin’s hand — a tactic that appeared to fail. New Delhi, too, had so far refused to bow to pressure, maintaining that it will buy oil from wherever it gets the best deal, unless the oil is sanctioned.

What happens now: Historically, New Delhi has been against unilateral sanctions, but it has shied away from doing business with sanctioned entities or countries, like Iran. While Russian oil remains sanction-free, an embargo on Rosneft and Lukoil, which account for over half of Russia’s oil output, can choke India’s supplies. However, this also gives India a leeway to diversify away from Russian imports as discounts have narrowed in recent months. Crucially, this comes at a time when India’s dependence on imported crude oil has grown.

👉 Read Sukalp Sharma’s analysis of how these sanctions will impact Indian refineries and importers like Reliance Industries.

🗳️ Decision 2025

After hectic negotiations in the troubled Mahagathbandhan, unity prevailed once again. The Congress announced RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav as the chief ministerial face of the alliance and Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) chief Mukesh Sahani as his deputy. This was one of the main issues complicating the seat-sharing deal between the RJD and the Congress.

Why Tejashwi? He joined politics in 2013 and emerged from the shadows of his father, RJD scion Lalu Prasad Yadav, swiftly. He led the alliance during the 2020 elections as well and has served as the Deputy to incumbent CM Nitish Kumar twice. Despite Nitish’s volte-face, Tejashwi cemented himself as a political force to be reckoned with.

And what about the NDA? While the ruling alliance is yet to announce a CM face, LJP (RV) chief Chirag Paswan told The Indian Express, “Eventually I think all the MLAs will elect Nitish Kumar ji again.” Read the full interview.

🎧 For more on the Bihar elections, tune in to today’s ‘3 Things’ podcast episode.

⚡ Only in Express

Dis/Agree: The retirement fund body, the Employees’ Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO), recently unveiled a series of reforms to make it easier for members to dip into their corpus. Do the measures sacrifice security for flexibility? We asked two experts to weigh in.

Manish Sabharwal, vice chairman of TeamLease Services, writes that the reforms will allow EPFO to transform from an isolated employer instrument into a lifetime social security account.

Meanwhile, Renuka Sane, managing director of TrustBridge Rule of Law Foundation, opines that these reforms are caught between two opposing policy goals. “In trying to offer both security and flexibility, the EPF may end up providing neither effectively.”

📌 Must Read

The dragon: China has been at the centre of global economic uncertainty thanks to Trump’s tariffs. In recent months, the US and China have extended their truce several times, even as Beijing strengthens its position over rare earth minerals and artificial intelligence. In this context, there may be lessons to learn from the current economic health of China, the ‘factory of the world’. Read our interview with Lizzi C Lee, a Fellow at the Centre for China Analysis, Asia Society Policy Institute.

Hashtag health: A viral social media trend, #CarbideGun, was all the rage across Madhya Pradesh. Influencers were uploading reels to make ‘calcium carbide’ guns, resembling miniature rockets, using pipes and water bottles at home for Diwali celebrations. Traditionally, they are used by farmers to scare off monkeys. Soon, this turned into a public health crisis, with more than 180 people, most of them children, getting injured. Read.

⏳ And Finally…

Icarus? For much of the year, gold was soaring high, demolishing well-established economic tenets. Typically, gold, a safe-haven asset, goes up when everything else underperforms. This year, though, the gold rally unfolded when other assets, from stocks to the dollar, were also up. Silver tagged along, too. Now, in recent days, gold finally saw a dip. Is this the end of a blistering rally or just a pause? We explain.

That’s all for today, folks! Happy weekend!
Sonal Gupta

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