On the Opposition not capitalising on opportunities

The Opposition is not going to struggle always. Never underestimate the Opposition in India. Opposition parties or formations could be weak but the Opposition is not weak in India. A lot of us think that in the last 10 years Modi has had a one-way run. That’s not true. The Opposition had at least three opportunities — 2015 electoral losses in Delhi and Bihar, distress due to the 2016 demonetisation and the 2018 electoral losses — when they could have pushed the BJP on the backfoot. But it did nothing. It allowed the BJP to make a comeback. Those opposed to the BJP have given opportunities but the Opposition has not capitalised on them.

On whether the Opposition is yet to find the language to take on the BJP’s Hindutva

I know a lot of people sitting in Delhi are obsessed with this idea of Hindutva. Let’s say those who believe in the BJP’s Hindutva are with them. But even if they are with them, let’s assume that there are a lot of people who are fans of Mr Modi. They have the organisation, they have the message, machinery, everything. But put together, they are only 38.

Of the hundred people who went to vote, only 38 voted for the BJP. The remaining 62, despite the masses, despite Hindutva, despite the organisation, despite the muscle, were still opposed to the BJP. Now the challenge is: how to get the majority of this 62… So I wouldn’t spend time on how to counter Hindutva. I would say how do I first galvanise those who are not convinced with this Hindutva.

On the BJP consolidating their votes post-Mandir

My sense is that Mandir is a very big issue, a big chatter point. It will certainly enthuse BJP cadres, supporters, voters and to that extent maybe the polling percentage will be higher… But I do not meet many people who say that because of the Mandir, I’m shifting (to BJP).

Prashant Kishor during an Indian Express ADDA at Le Meridian, New Delhi on Friday, February 02, 2024. (Express photo by Abhinav Saha)

I have seen that though, to my surprise, in the case of Article 370. There are many more incremental voters that have come BJP’s way, courtesy Article 370 than the Mandir. The Mandir is definitely a steroid but it’s not going to give you an incremental vote.

On an ideological shift in society

I don’t see a tectonic shift in Hindu society, that as a community we are getting more radical, that all of a sudden we have started hating Muslims, that we want Hindu Rashtra. No. Over the last 30 or 40 years of effort of the Sangh at societal level, it has moved the needle from 40 per cent Hindus to 45 per cent. It takes a lot more effort and time than what we think.

From left to right: Dilip Cherian, Founding Partner Perfect Relations; Poonam Muttreja, Executive Director, Population Foundation of India; Sunil Sarogi, former Chairman, Sikkim Urja Limited. (Express photo by Praveen Khanna)

The moment it crosses 55 per cent, then you should start paying attention to the call of sanatana dharma, Hindu Rashtra and all. You need a minimum of 55 to 60 per cent Hindus to be following and buying that idea because the moment you have 60 per cent Hindus voting for the BJP, you are talking about a 48 per cent-plus vote. But even though it seems that from 45 to 55 is only 10 percentage points, it could take 20 to 30 years. And if there is a counter, then it could go down again.

Prashant Kishor, Political Strategist and Founder of Jan Suraaj Party with Anant Goenka, Executive Director of The Indian Express and Vandita Mishra, National Opinion Editor of The Indian Express during Express ADDA in New Delhi. (Express photo by Praveen Khanna)

So it has taken almost 50 years-plus effort on the part of the Sangh to have this level of, I would say, not polarisation, but Hindus coming together under the idea as professed by it, of a Hindu ideology, but still they have not crossed 50 per cent.

Tavleen Singh during Express ADDA in New Delhi on Friday. (Express photo by Praveen Khanna)

On ‘secular’ becoming a bad word

The Opposition is not losing because of using the word secular. It is losing because they are not up to the task, they have been lazy. You made the INDIA alliance, for whatever it is worth, nine months before the general elections. What prevented all these wise men and women who are running the Opposition parties to do this two years ago or immediately after the Bengal (elections), when the chips were down for BJP?

From the first meeting of the INDIA alliance in June 2023 to now, they have not done a single public meeting. The total number of work hours for them is six days.

Prashant Kishor, Political Strategist and Founder of Jan Suraaj Party with Anant Goenka, Executive Director of The Indian Express and Vandita Mishra, National Opinion Editor of The Indian Express during Express ADDA in New Delhi. (Express photo by Praveen Khanna)

On whether the argument of democracy being in danger resonates with voters

It does and it doesn’t. It does and that’s why you see very different results in Lok Sabha versus Vidhan Sabha. You go to the village and you ask a person that you voted for Modi in Lok Sabha, so why are you voting for a regional party or somebody else in Vidhan Sabha? Among one of the most cited reasons is we don’t want all power in the hands of one person. So centralisation of power, the fear of one person becoming too strong — the common person understands this better than you and me. And the argument doesn’t because India has seen this kind of centralisation of power in the past as well. So if you talk to the BJP supporters about misuse of institutions, they will immediately say that it happened during Indira Gandhi’s time as well.

Lorenzo Parrulli, EU Representative, Second Secretary (Political Affairs) woth Laurent Triponey (right) First Counsellor, Embassy of France in India. (Express photo by Abhinav Saha)

On being ideology-agnostic

My approach has been, don’t make yourself and your judgments subservient to ideology. And to that extent, yes, I am ideologically agnostic. I do not want to become a prisoner of ideology. If I think something is wrong, I must have the courage to go and say it’s wrong, whether it is coming from my ideological base or opposing my ideological base.

Dr  Jahnavi Das, Prashant Kishor’s wife. (Express photo by Praveen Khanna)

On the BJP getting Nitish Kumar

BJP has not got Nitish Kumar because he will get them more votes. BJP is going to lose seats in Bihar in Lok Sabha  because they have to now adjust Nitish Kumar, so they will be fighting for fewer number of seats. They have got him because they wanted to kill this perceptional thing that, you know, there is an Opposition alliance or block called INDIA.

Prashant Kishore and Raj Kamal Jha during Indian Express ADDA with Prashant Kishore at Le Meridian, New Delhi on Friday, February 02, 2024. (Express photo by Abhinav Saha)

By taking one of the founders of INDIA, they have given a big psychological blow to the Opposition rather than them taking because they cannot win Bihar or they cannot do politics in Bihar without Nitish Kumar. So I would say BJP knows the data and the facts, but it’s a strategy where they have decided to lose the battle to win the war.

Prashant Kishore during Express ADDA in New Delhi on Friday. (Express photo by Anil Sharma)

On the women’s vote

Increasingly, more and more political parties win  or lose purely on the basis of the women’s vote. In Bengal, the difference between men and women voting for TMC (All India Trinamool Congress) was 13 percentage points. So all the men who think that they control their wives, they are making a big mistake. Some of the commentary which I see in the papers says that because women turnout is more, hence XYZ has won. Please read the data carefully, it’s largely a denominator effect. There are fewer women registered as voters, hence sometimes just the voting percentage appears more for the women, actually it’s not more… Women who are going to vote have their own issues, they are much smarter but they are less expressive and that’s why surveys tend to get women preferences wrong.

QUICK QUESTIONS

If these politicians were stocks, who would you pick: Akhilesh Yadav, Aditya Thackeray, Chirag Paswan, KTR (KT Rama Rao), Jagan Reddy, Raghav Chadha, Omar Abdullah, Udhayanidhi Stalin, Abhishek Banerjee.

They are all potted plants, so none.

Dalbir Singh, Chairman, One Globe Forum and (right) Freddy Svane, Ambassador of Denmark to India. (Express photo by Anil Sharma)

So give us your pick.

I don’t know the name but I will just borrow something I heard from Bill Gates. He was asked, ‘Who will replace you as the richest person on the planet’? He said, ‘I don’t know who will, but I know for sure that the person who is going to replace me is not in the business today. Because if he would have been in the business I would not have surpassed him’.

Is there one person, who is not in politics today, who you think has a great opportunity in politics?

Anyone willing to put in 12 hours and has a 10-year plan has an opportunity.

What is the number one weakness that may hurt the BJP electorally?

Over-dependence on Mr Modi.

Prashant Kishore during the Indian Express Adda on 16th Jan 2 Feb. 2024, New Delhi. (Express photo by Renuka Puri)

BJP after Modi — who is likely to take his place?

Whoever comes will be more of a hardliner than Mr Modi.

The one thing you’ve learned from Nitish Kumar?

The ability to maneuver and gain from the place of weakness. He has never worked from the position of strength.

Would you advise state parties to push for caste census?

State parties yes, national parties no. The Congress paid a heavy price in MP and Chhattisgarh for overplaying this card.

One secret ingredient behind Naveen Patnaik’s political longevity.

Just remaining out of sight. If you are not visible, it’s very difficult to attack you.

If Mayawati were to call you and ask for advice, what would you say?

That I have retired.

If you’re reading Mayawati’s book today, what chapter are we on?

The last chapter is already written.

Which institution has a better finger on the pulse of the nation — RSS or BJP?

The RSS, any day.

Between Stalin, Mamata, Kejriwal, Jagan, Uddhav, Nitesh and Amrinder, which campaign was the toughest?

Toughest was Punjab in 2017 because it was with Amrinder Singh and the Congress, against the rising force of AAP.

One big difference between the Modi of 2019 and the Modi of 2024.

In 2019, he was taking India to greater glory. In 2024, he is bringing God to India.

Identity or welfare, which one of these is the more potent election weapon?

Welfare. A bad government, no matter how much you play (the identity card), whether it’s mandal or kamandal, will give you some votes but not victory.

The one thing that needs to change in Dravidian politics?

Dependence on caste. The influence of money in politics is far greater and worrisome than what it is in northern India.

If you were to predict seats for BJP, NDA?

I would say, as of now, the Modi-led NDA or BJP has a significant advantage.

Is there anything Prashant Kishor is afraid of?

I am afraid of getting up in the morning and realising that my brain is not working.