Insufficient rains so far this month has forced the India Meteorological Department (IMD) to make a downward revision in its rainfall forecast for the monsoon season from June to September,even though it has predicted good rains in July and August. The IMD today issued an updated forecast in which it said that during the four-month season,the country as a whole was likely to receive rainfall that was 96 per cent of the average. This is well below the 99 per cent rains it predicted in the first forecast in April. The downward revision has been necessitated mainly because of below-normal rainfall so far this month. The IMD said the country had received rainfall that was just 76 per cent of the average between June 1 to 21. But it has made a hopeful prediction for the months of July and August. Rainfall for the country as a whole for the month of July 2012 is likely to be 98 per cent of its LPA (Long Period Average) and that for the month of August is likely to be 96 per cent of LPA,both with a model error of 9 per cent, IMD said in a statement. The IMD also came up with a forecast for regional distribution of rainfall over the four main geographical areas. And except for the north-eastern region,the news does not seem very good for the rest of the country. The north-western region,comprising Uttar Pradesh,Uttaranchal,Delhi,Rajasthan,Haryana,Punjab,Himachal Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir,is likely to witness below average monsoon season with just 93 per cent rainfall predicted. The southern peninsula is expected to get 95 per cent rainfall in the entire season while central India is likely to get 96 per cent. North-eastern India is expected to get 99 per cent rainfall during the four-month season. The departments latest forecast is likely to be taken as the first official warning about this years monsoon,especially in light of the fact that there is a possibility of development of El Nino conditions in the Pacific region an extreme difference in sea surface temperatures that has had adverse effect on the monsoon in the past. As of now,ENSO neutral conditions are prevailing. The latest forecasts from a majority of the dynamical and statistical models indicate that ENSO neutral conditions are most likely (probability of 60 per cent) to prevail during the monsoon season. There is a also a substantial probability (about 36 per cent) for the emergence of weak El Nino conditions during the later part of the monsoon season, the IMD said.
