Even as India appears set for a second consecutive normal monsoon — the country as a whole has received an area-weighted rainfall of 472.7 mm during June 1 to August 2, just above the historical average of 471.8 mm for this period — there are two distinct dry spots that may be cause for concern. The first one is the Deep South, covering much of Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu. While coastal Karnataka and the old Mysore region have reported respective rainfall shortages of 21 per cent and 36 per cent so far in the current southwest monsoon season, the corresponding deficiency for Kerala has been 31 per cent. Tamil Nadu, too, recorded 21 per cent below-normal rains till end-July. Significantly, this whole belt suffered monsoon failure — both during the southwest (June-September) and northeast (October-December) — last year as well, making it two-in-a-row. The other brown patch that is emerging is the Marathwada and Vidarbha regions of Maharashtra. Last year, this traditionally drought-prone stretch had registered excellent rains. This time, too, they had received decent showers in June. But the dry spell since last month has set off alarm bells; there are already reports of over two lakh hectares area in the state requiring “dubaar perni” or re-sowing, especially of cotton and soyabean. At the other extreme, there are areas – particularly Gujarat and Rajasthan – that have had excess rainfall, resulting in flooding of fields where farmers had already cotton, groundnut, bajra and other kharif crops. A clearer picture of the impact — both of floods in Gujarat and Rajasthan and drought in southern India and Marathwada-Vidarbha — would emerge in the next couple of weeks. Right now, one can only say that the monsoon, while normal for the country as a whole, isn’t as good and well-distributed as it was last year. This, notwithstanding the Agriculture Ministry’s data showing 3.3 per cent rise in overall kharif sowing area up to now compared to last year. All crops — barring arhar (pigeon-pea), jowar (sorghum), maize and oilseeds (including soyabean, groundnut, sesamum and sunflower) — have posted acreage increases.
