Bypolls to 7 Assembly seats on Nov 13, results on Nov 23

Of these seven, five were vacated after INDIA alliance members were elected to the Lok Sabha earlier this year. While Brijendra Singh Ola (Jhunjhunu Assembly seat), Murari Lal Meena (Dausa), Harish Chandra Meena (Deoli-Uniara) were elected to LS on a Congress ticket, Hanuman Beniwal of Rashtriya Loktantrik Party (RLP) resigned from Khinwsar Assembly seat after he was elected to the Lok Sabha from from Nagaur.

Similarly, Rajkumar Roat of Bharat Adivasi Party (BAP) resigned as MLA from Chorasi after he was elected to the Lok Sabha from Banswara.

The other two seats fell vacant after the demise of the sitting MLA – Zubair Khan of Congress in Ramgarh and Amrit Lal Meena of BJP from Salumber.

While Congress is confident of retaining at least four of these seats, there has been no alliance yet with the RLP or BAP. The Haryana results have also made things difficult for the Congress. Apart from Khinwsar, RLP can play spoilsport for both Congress and BJP in Jhunjhunu, Dausa, Deoli-Uniara and even Ramgarh, while BAP may field a candidate in Salumber, apart from the Chorasi seat.

For Chief Minister Bhajan Lal Sharma, it will be seen as a vote on his governance, even though BJP held only one of the seven seats. However, buoyed by Haryana results and no clarity within the INDIA alliance, the BJP may hope to upset Congress’s plans in the state.

Khinwsar

In 2023, Beniwal had won by just over 2,000 votes. The seat has been with the Beniwal family since its creation, with Hanuman Beniwal elected first in 2008 on a BJP ticket, then in 2013 as an Independent, and then in 2018 as a candidate of his own party, the RLP. In 2019, he was elected to the Nagaur Lok Sabha in alliance with the BJP, and his brother Narayan Beniwal was elected to Khinwsar in a bypoll.

In 2023, Hanuman was elected again as an MLA from here but he won the Lok Sabha elections this year, in alliance with INDIA bloc. However, ever since the LS results, the relations between RLP and Congress have hit a rough patch, and it is not clear if the parties will enter an alliance for the bypolls. There is speculation that Beniwal may again field his wife or brother this time. In Congress, one of the few names doing the rounds is Raghuvendra Mirdha. For BJP, one of the chief names doing the rounds is of Jyoti Mirdha.

Chorasi

Bharat Adivasi Party (BAP) leader Rajkumar Roat was elected as an MP from Banswara earlier this year, necessitating his resignation as MLA. As BAP continues to make strides in the region, both BJP and Congress are wary of their shrinking foothold in the tribal region. Among the many names doing the rounds from BAP is that of Popatlal Khokhariya, who is quite active in the region.

In case there is no alliance, the Congress may field Tarachand Bhagora from here. In the 2023 Assembly elections, the Congress had announced a tie up with BAP yet Bhagora had refused to withdraw his name, embarrassing the party. However, Roat went on to win the seat. The BJP may opt for Mahendrajeet Singh Malviya, the Congress heavyweight, who had resigned from his Bagidora Assembly seat to join BJP ahead of LS polls, but lost to Roat in Banswara LS.

Jhunjhunu

The seat is considered a stronghold of the Ola family of Congress which has been winning from here for the past four elections. The last time BJP won this seat was in 2003. Since then, Brijendra Singh Ola won this seat in 2008, 2013, 2018 and 2023.

With Ola now in the LS, the Congress may opt for someone from the family – speculation is rife that any one from Ola’s wife to his son and daughter-in-law, may be fielded.

The BJP may field Nisheet Kumar alias Bablu Choudhary, who had lost to Ola in 2023. Or, it may field party rebel Rajendra Singh Bhamboo, who had rebelled and stood third behind Ola and Bablu.

Dausa

The region has been in the news for much heartache for the BJP of late. While it lost the Assembly seat in 2023, it also lost the Dausa Lok Sabha, prompting resignation of party heavyweight Kirodi Lal Meena as a minister in June. After the party lost Dausa LS and some other seats in eastern Rajasthan, Meena said that he could not fulfil the task given to him by Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself hence he has no right to continue as a minister.

However, over four months later, the BJP has not accepted his resignation and he remains locked in a skirmish with the government over various corruption issues.

The BJP may now field his brother Jagmohan Meena or Shankar Lal Sharma; however, Sharma was elected from here last in 2013, and lost in 2023 and 2018.

The Congress party may opt for someone in the family of Murari Lal Meena, who had vacated the seat after his election to the LS. Apart from Murari’s wife Savita and daughter Niharika, the names of G R Khatana, considered close to Pilot, and Naresh Meena are also doing the rounds.

Deoli – Uniara

The seat comes under Tonk district, from where Sachin Pilot is also an MLA from Tonk Assembly seat. Former DGP Harish Chandra Meena, considered close to Pilot, was elected from here in 2018 and 2023, before his election to the LS this year.

The Congress may opt for someone in the Meena family, including Harish’s elder brother and former Union minister Namo Narain Meena, or Harish’s son. Dheeraj Gurjar and Naresh Meena – who is seeking a ticket from Dausa too – may be considered by the party as well.

BJP may once again field its former MLA Rajendra Gurjar (2013-18), who was defeated by Harish Meena in 2018. He had sought a ticket again in 2023 but the party instead fielded Vijay Bainsla, son of Gujjar agitation leader Kirori Singh Bainsla, who passed away in 2022. Though Bainsla had lost to Meena by over 19,000 votes, the party may once again consider fielding Bainsla from here.

Ramgarh

Since 1990, the seat has shifted between the Khan family of Congress and Gyan Dev Ahuja of BJP. Congress leader Zubair Khan was first elected from here in 1990 and again in 1993, 2003 and 2023.

Ahuja won the seat in 1998, 2008, and 2013, but was dropped in 2018, allegedly owing to his differences with then CM Vasundhara Raje. The Congress also dropped Khan, and instead fielded his wife Shafia Zubair, who defeated Sukhwant Singh of BJP.

Last year, the Congress had dropped Shafia for her husband, who passed away last month. Hoping to ride the sympathy wave, the Congress party may field Shafia again.

In 2023, the BJP had fielded Gyan Dev’s relative Jai Ahuja, who had stood third. BJP rebel Sukhawant Singh had contested as an Aazad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram) candidate and polled over 74,000 votes and stood second. This time around, both Jai and Sukhawant are again hoping for a ticket.

Salumber

Of the seven bypoll seats, only Salumber, a tribal seat, was with the BJP. Here, Amrit Lal Meena was the party’s sitting MLA, having won the seat in 2013, 2018 and 2023.

The last time the Congress had won this seat was in 2008, when Raghuvir Meena had won. However, Raghuvir’s wife Basanti was defeated by Amrit in 2013, and then Raghuvir himself was defeated by Amrit in 2018 and 2023.

The BJP may also hope to gain from sympathy for Amrit Meena and field his son Avinash Meena. Among other names, local BJP leader Narendra Meena is also seen as a probable candidate. For the Congress, it may again field Amrit Meena or his wife Basanti.