During much of the current government’s tenure, Indian farmers have suffered from poor crop realisations, partly due to the crash in global agri-commodity prices after around April 2014 and aggravated by demonetisation and GST (goods and services tax) that have depressed sentiment in predominantly cash-based produce markets. One indicator of this is annual wholesale price index inflation, which averaged 3.57 per cent from 2014-15 to 2017-18 (April-March) in “food articles” and 0.29 per cent for “non-food articles”. Even for the current fiscal, the year-on-year inflation rate of minus 0.21 per cent in food articles and 4.17 per cent in non-food agricultural articles has been lower than the 5.13 per cent for “all commodities”. But that story of depressed farm prices, for over four-and-a-half years now, may soon reverse. The reasons are two-fold. The first is drought - especially in Gujarat, large parts of Maharashtra, and North Karnataka - that could impact sowings in the just-commenced rabi season. The second reason is the steep increase in prices of diesel, fertilisers and crop protection chemicals, which might further discourage plantings by farmers, already facing margin squeeze from depressed produce realisations. Sunil Katkade, a farmer from Naigaon village in Sinnar taluka of Maharashtra’s Nashik district, normally grows onion on two out of his seven acres land during the rabi season. This time, he has sown his nursery in mid-September, but isn’t sure of being able to transplant the seedlings by the second week of November. “Where is the water? I would be lucky to plant even one acre,” remarks the 50-year-old, who grows napier grass and alfalfa fodder on his remaining five acres. Maharashtra produces roughly 30 per cent of India’s onions and, within that, the bulk of it comes from Nashik, Ahmednagar and Solapur districts. During this monsoon season (June-September), Nashik received just 61.7 per cent of its normal rainfall quota, with the corresponding figures at 71.9 per cent for Ahmednagar and 38.4 per cent for Solapur. Worse, it has hardly rained in the current month either. Naigaon is next to the left bank canal of the Waghad irrigation project. But the lack of rains has meant that no water has been released into the canal after August. “The water situation is bad. I don’t see rabi acreage in Maharashtra crossing 2 lakh hectares (lh) this year, as against the normal 3-3.5 lh,” notes Jagdish Apsunde, a trader and director at the Nashik agricultural produce market committee or APMC. There are three onion crops in a year: kharif (transplanted in June-July and harvested in September-November), late-kharif (September-October transplanting and December-February harvesting) and rabi (November-January transplanting and March-May harvesting). The rabi onions - in which Maharashtra has a 55 per cent share - are ones amenable to storage and feed the market during April-September, before the next kharif crop’s arrival. Onion prices at Lasalgaon — the market in Nashik’s Niphad taluka that is the country’s largest — have, in the last one month, climbed from Rs 675 to Rs 1,550 per quintal. “We have last year’s bumper crop of stored rabi onions still coming in and keeping prices somewhat in check. But yields in both the kharif and late-kharif crops will be low. And with rabi plantings, too, taking a hit, the market will remain bullish,” predicts Sohanlal Bhandari, president of the Nashik District Onion Traders Association. While the Maharashtra government has already identified 172 of the state’s 358 talukas to be drought-affected, Gujarat has done the same for 51 out of its 251 and Karnataka, likewise, in 100 out of 227. These numbers are likely to rise in the coming weeks. It will impact not only rabi sowings of crops such as onion, jowar (sorghum), chana (chickpea), wheat, jeera (cumin), dhaniya (coriander) and saunf (fennel), but even yields of kharif maize, cotton, groundnut and soyabean that are currently being harvested. Moisture stress apart, there are also reports of pest and disease attacks, particularly on sugarcane. In Maharashtra, an estimated 1.3 lh out of the state’s total 11 lh area has been infested by white grub, the larva of an insect pest that feeds on the roots of the cane, causing the stalks to wilt and lodge. The infestation has taken place largely in Solapur, Ahmednagar and parts of Marathwada, where the rains - which would have washed away the pest - haven’t been good. The yield losses in these areas have assessed at 30-40 per cent. B.B. Thombare, chairman of the Latur-based Natural Sugar & Allied Industries Ltd, expects the combination of drought and white grub to bring down Maharashtra’s sugar output for the 2018-19 season (October-September) to 92-95 lakh tonnes (lt), from the earlier projected 115 lt and the record 107.10 lt of 2017-18. Even in Uttar Pradesh (UP), India’s top sugar producer, many farmers are talking about Pokkah Boeng, an airborne fungal disease that leads to shortening of the cane top and leaves, thereby retarding plant growth and yields. “It has mainly damaged Co-0238 (a popular high-yielding variety that has significantly boosted sugar recoveries in northern states) and, more so, the ratoon crop (which is harvested and crushed during November-January). The plant-cane may be less affected, as it is harvested after February, which allows more time for growth recovery”, says Jitender Singh Hooda, an eight-acre farmer from Kheri Bairagi village in Shamli tehsil and district of western UP. While scientists recommend spraying of fungicides like Bavistin and copper oxychloride to control Pokkah Boeng, Hooda claims that this is effective only at the early stages of the crop. “Most farmers here were not even aware of this disease, as their focus was limited to top borer, white grub and red rot. They came to know about it only after mid-July, by which time the cane had grown to a height where spraying wasn’t possible. The Co-0238 ratoon cane yields will be 10-15 per cent lower compared to last year,” he adds. In Central UP, there have been reports of red rot, yet another fungal disease resulting in shrivelling of the cane and deterioration in juice quality. In UP as well, sugar output hit an all-time-high of 120.50 lt in 2017-18. The initial projection for the new season was 135 lt, but that may well be revised downwards. India’s overall production itself is now being pegged about 30 lt below the original forecast of 350-355 lt. That will be closer to the 323 lt of 2017-18, with the possibility of going down further. But it’s not just lower production from deficient rains and pest/disease attacks that may help reverse an extended bear cycle in crop prices. More important could be the cost of diesel, fertilisers and pesticides - which were not a major factor till a year ago, though not any longer. Take onion, where Sunil Katkade reckons his total cost of cultivation to have risen from around Rs 34,500 to Rs 39,500 per acre in the last one year. “A 50-kg bag of 24:24:0:8 (a complex fertiliser with the said proportions of nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium and sulphur) was priced at Rs 1,000 last year. Now, it is Rs 1,200. Similarly, the cost of 10:26:26:0 has gone up from Rs 1,150 to Rs 1,350 per bag, while from Rs 1,200 to Rs 1,450 for di-ammonium phosphate and from Rs 750 to Rs 950 for muriate of potash. Diesel costs Rs 79 per litre today, whereas it was under Rs 60 a year ago,” he rattles off. This cost increase is something not every farmer can absorb. To the extent they cannot, it will get reflected in their cutting back on plantings. That might well happen in this rabi season, whose effects will be felt in April-May, just when it is time for Lok Sabha elections.
