India’s fossil fuel CO2 emissions set to rise 4.6% in 2024, highest among major economies, shows report

“The impacts of climate change are becoming increasingly dramatic, yet we still see no sign that burning of fossil fuels has peaked,” said Professor Pierre Friedlingstein, of Exteter’s Global Systems Institute, who led the study.

According to the study, released at COP29 in Baku, India’s carbon emissions are projected to rise with an increase in emissions from coal (4.5%), oil (3.6%), natural gas (11.8%, but from a low base) and cement (4%).

“The Indian economy continues to grow strongly, with significant infrastructure development and increases in power demand that outstrip the solid growth in new renewables,” said the study.

Compared with India, China’s emissions are projected to rise by 0.2% in 2024 while that of the United States and the European Union by 0.6% and 3.8%, respectively. India’s contribution to global CO2 emissions stands at 8% while China, the US and EU contribute 32%, 13% and 7%, respectively. Said the study: “Coal emissions (41% of global emissions) are projected to increase 0.2%, with increases in India, China, and the Rest of the World in aggregate, and decreases in the European Union and the USA.” The Global Carbon Project and Global Carbon Budget annual research is done by a team of scientists at more than 80 institutions around the world, including the University of Exeter and the University of East Anglia in the UK; the CICERO Center for International Climate Research in Norway; Ludwig-Maximilian-University Munich and Alfred-Wefener-Institut in Germany.

In terms of carbon sinks, the study showed that land and oceans combined absorbed around half of the CO2 emitted due to human activity even while facing negative impacts of climate change. Oceans took up 10.5 billion tonnes — or 26% of the total CO2 emissions — on average each year in the past decade. This, even as climate conditions reduced the ocean sink by an estimated 5.9% in the past decade, likely dominated by altered winds that perturb the ocean circulation with a smaller contribution from the reduced solubility of CO2 in warming waters.

El Nino reduced land CO2 sink in 2023 due to warmer temperatures, but it is projected to recover as El Nino ended by the second quarter of 2024. Land and ocean CO2 sinks fluctuate annually due to natural climate variability.