Tamil Nadu polls: Vijayakanth, Vaiko leave BJP with lonely battle to fight

BJP president Amit Shah’s efforts came up against a wall in the form of Premalatha, Vijayakanth’s wife and political adviser. A hard bargainer for the family-run party, she argued that her husband is the real alternative to the DMK and the AIADMK, capable of consolidating the anti-incumbency vote of both Dravidian and non-Dravidian camps. She set terms too tough to meet, a BJP leader said.

Even the Congress is surprised by Premalatha’s move to walk out of talks with the DMK, which had looked like having reached the final stages.

The BJP figures that it would have been easier to take Vijayakanth head on if he had sided with either the DMK or the AIADMK. By the BJP’s internal assessment, the AIADMK gains majorly because it sees Vaiko-Vijayakanth as a “vote-katwa” alliance that will hit the DMK and the BJP harder than it will hit the AIADMK.

A senior BJP source closely involved in the failed talks with the DMDK said, “This Vaiko-Vijayakanth alliance will help Jayalalithaa cut non-Dravidian votes into several parts. With her solid base among Dravidian voters, she is comfortable today.”

Prime Minister Narendra Modi will address eight rallies in the state, where his weakened party will fight most of 234 assembly seats with some five pocket-sized, localised allies. The major contestants are the AIADMK, the BJP, the PWF-DMDK and the DMK and the Congress, the last two of which are in alliance talks.

The BJP is back to square one in attracting Dravidian votes. An early survey by the party suggests it may not get “even a dozen seats” if Jayalalithaa succeeds in dividing the anti-incumbency vote. The BJP fears, in fact, that AIADMK candidates may even go for a clandestine arrangement in certain constituencies with PWF-DMDK candidates.

According to the BJP’s internal analysis, Vaiko played a deft game by partnering with Vijayakanth because voters who want to break away from a two-party system may find son-of-the-soil Vijayakanth a better option than “Hindi party” BJP. Since the regime of Congress CM M Bakthavatsalam in 1963, Tamil Nadu has had only DMK or AIADMK governments.

Vijayakanth’s DMDK was the party most sought after this election. Vijayakanth, who can hardly speak English or Hindi, met Amit Shah in January. There were many rounds of talks between the parties, with Environment Minister Prakash Javadekar and Premalatha negotiating the terms.

On March 24, hours before the Vaiko-Vijayakanth alliance was announced, Shah was in Tamil Nadu to attend the birthday celebrations of Kanchi seer Shankaracharya, who had once been jailed. Shah made a veiled criticism of Jayalalithaa. “Tough action was taken against the Kanchi seer politically.”

Premalatha had proved tough even for Shah, say party sources. As such, his party has run out of steam before the whistle blows at the starting line.