For years dominated by the DMK or the AIADMK, with the locally strong PMK usually an ally of one or the other, northern Tamil Nadu this time presents a contest that looks wide open with various smaller parties emerging strong enough to eat into the vote banks the Dravidian parties. The various caste groups these parties seek to represent could dicate the choice of many voters, as could lingering resentment over last year’s floods. Much of the caste violence including anti-Dalit riots in the past five years has been in the north, home to parties such as S Ramadoss’s PMK with its large OBC-Vanniyar vote base, Thol Thirumavalavan’s Dalit party VCK and filmmaker Seeman’s Naam Tamizhar Katchi, a Tamil Nadu version of Maharashtra Navnirman Sena. These smaller parties — as well as Vijayakanth’s DMDK that seeks to project itself as a party above caste politics — present the voter a variety of choices, with the PMK too contesting alone this time. “Caste-based parties here are likely to play spoilsport this time to the DMK or the AIADMK; it is expected that either of them will eventually win the seats. Smaller parties will be the deciding factor,” said P Ramajayam, a senior poll analyst at the Centre for Study of Social Exclusion and Inclusive Policy, Trichy. [related-post] The DMK used to be dominant but the AIADMK swept the region in 2011, winning 53 of the 80 seats while its then ally the DMDK won eight. The DMK won only five seats in 2011 but is now banking on anti-incumbency following the floods of November-December 2015. Of the Lok Sabha constituencies that make up the region — Chennai (North, South and Central), Kancheepuram and Cuddalore, Villupuram, Tiruvannamalai, Krishnagiri, Dharmapuri, Vellore, Thiruvallur — Chennai, Kancheepuram and Cuddalore were worst hit by the floods. “We starved for a month. There were days when we had to chase trucks to loot them for something to eat or drink,” said Palanivel, a farm worker from Cuddalore who drives a truck in Chennai. He said his family had to bribe local workers of the ruling party to get compensation. It is an issue the DMK’s M Karunanidhi has been taking up in almost all his rallies to attack Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa. The voter, however, has too many choices besides the DMK. And like the DMK, none of the smaller parties can take its votes for granted. Although this region is where the PMK wields its influence, party sympathisers in many parts admit their base has been eroding despite the efforts of S Ramadoss’s son Anbumani at rebuilding its image. Ramadas Guru of Tiruvannamalai used to be with the PMK until a year ago when he defected to the DMDK. He explained why. “Anbumani may be promising and flamboyant but one needs money and power to sustain in his party. In the DMDK, no one bothers about my caste or bank balance,” said the local leader, who claims he can rally at least 2,000 votes. For all Anbumani’s efforts at repackaging the PMK from what has been known as a Vanniyar party to one that seeks to represent everyone, his rivals continue to blame his party for the anti-Dalit riots in Dharmapuri in 2012. In an interview to The Indian Express, Anbumani had denied such caste motives. The VCK, for its part, is constrained by its image of being a Dalit party. “Political aspirants with sizeable support in villages prefer to join the DMDK as it has room to accommodate everyone irrespective of caste,” said Ramajayam, the poll analyst. “Not only the DMK but the AIADMK too has become a party of the middle class and upper middle class; for many, the PMK too is an expensive party.” The AIADMK’s hopes here, as elsewhere, rest on various initiatives taken or promised, such as the laptop scheme and the gold given to young women as marriage assistance. Some voters, nevertheless, are upset by the fact that Jayalalithaa’s appearances in public have been rare. For the DMK, stumbling blocks in urban areas could be the 2G scandal and corruption charges faced by its local leaders. WATCH INDIAN EXPRESS VIDEOS HERE
