Alert sounded as cyclone Biparjoy changes its path, heads to Gujarat coast

Biparjoy, which has already developed into an “extremely severe cyclonic storm”, the second highest category according to strength, was positioned about 540 km west of Mumbai Sunday evening.

“It is very likely to move nearly northward till June 14 morning, then move north-northeastwards and cross Saurashtra and Kutch and adjoining Pakistan coasts between Mandvi in Gujarat and Karachi in Pakistan by noon of June 15,” the cyclone bulletin Sunday evening stated.

Until Saturday afternoon, it appeared that Biparjoy would avoid the Gujarat coast and move towards the Pakistani coastline. RSMC bulletins on Saturday said the cyclone was “likely to move north-northeastwards during the next 24 hours (till Sunday)” and then “gradually north-northwestwards during the subsequent three days”.

This gradual “north-northwestwards” movement, which could have avoided the Gujarat coast, is no longer predicted in the latest bulletins.

Cyclones in the Arabian Sea usually do not move towards the Indian coast. Most of them, more than 75 per cent of all Arabian Sea cyclones, move northwards or northwestwards. In that case, their trajectory is directed towards Pakistan, Iran or Oman. Some of them dissipate their energy over the sea itself. Only a small number of them, less than 25 per cent, move northeast, mainly towards the Gujarat coast.

In the case of Biparjoy, a minor relief is that by the time it makes the landfall on June 15, it will have lost some of its strength and get downgraded to a “very severe cyclonic storm”. The cyclone is expected to remain at its maximum strength on Sunday, generating wind speeds of 165-175 kmph, with gusts reaching up to 195 kmph. By the time it reaches the land, the associated wind speeds are likely to reduce to 125-135 kmph, with gusts reaching up to 150 kmph.

Yet, it is strong enough to cause widespread damage in the coastal areas. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued heavy rainfall warnings for Kutch, Dwarka, Porbandar, Jamnagar, Rajkot, Junagadh and Morbi districts of Gujarat.

“The intensity of rainfall would increase with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places and extremely heavy falls at isolated places very likely over Kutch, Devbhumi Dwarka & Jamnagar and heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places over Porbandar, Rajkot, Morbi & Junagadh districts of Gujarat on 15th June,” it said.

Fishermen have been asked to return from sea and suspend fishing operations until June 15. The local administration in the affected districts has been advised to make preparations for evacuation of people.

The state government has decided to postpone its annual ceremonial school enrolment drive ‘Shala Praveshotsav’ in six coastal districts of the state – Junagadh, Porbandar, Devbhumi Dwarka, Jamnagar, Morbi and Kutch – and deputed ministers to these districts to monitor the situation. These districts are located on the south and western coasts of Saurashtra, peninsular Kutch and fall in the predicted path of Biparjoy. The government has also begun evacuating people from vulnerable areas along the coast.

The Shala Praveshotsav, the event at which government ministers and officers formally welcome newly-enrolled children to schools, was to happen from Monday to Wednesday.

Chief Minister Bhupendra Patel ordered its postponement in six districts, and curtailed it to a two-day event in two other districts.

“The cyclone is moving towards us. So, everybody pray that should it hit (Gujarat), then it passes off causing minimum damage. If it does not hit Gujarat, nothing like it. But as of now, possibilities are there that it may hit (Gujarat),” Patel told a gathering in Bodeli in Chhota Udepur district.

Union Health Minister Mansukh Mandaviya, who was in Rajkot on an official visit, held a meeting with the district administration to review preparedness.

Meanwhile, evacuation from the vulnerable areas has already begun. “We started evacuating people living in huts and kutcha houses… Till Sunday evening, approximately 1,100 people have been evacuated,” Ashok Sharma, District Collector of Devbhumi Dwarka, said.

The state government has also closed popular sea beaches like Chowpaty in Porbandar, Shivrajpur near Dwarka, and Mandvi in Kutch district.

In Morbi district, Collector G T Pandya said that a few hundred people had voluntarily evacuated their houses on the sea coast and moved to safer places. The administration had converted 18 buildings into cyclone shelters with the capacity to accommodate 3,500 people.

In Kutch, about 5,000 people might need to be shifted, Mitesh Pandya, Resident Additional Collector, said.

Meanwhile, Gujarat BJP said it had postponed all its public functions between June 12 and 15. The BJP had organised a range of programmes to mark nine years of the Modi government at the Centre.