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Journalism of Courage
For Congress: A united front in Madhya Pradesh helped, but rocky road opens out ahead
In addition to the anti-incumbency against the BJP, a certain working cohesion and unity among various factions seems to have helped the Congress in the Assembly elections. That it did not have a chief ministerial candidate could, in fact, have worked to its advantage.
On the other hand, the choice of Chief Minister itself could create problems now — assuming, of course, the Congress is ultimately able to make the government. Both Kamal Nath and Jyotiraditya Scindia are eyeing the top job. Digvijaya Singh, another veteran, has thrown his weight behind Nath. The MLAs will choose but Rahul Gandhi will have a say — and a hard decision to make.
That the Congress could not score an emphatic victory which indicates that promises made in the manifesto are not enough to win elections — no matter that Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s government was facing multi-term anti-incumbency and deep farm distress. The Congress will have to work on strengthening its organisation ahead of the Lok Sabha polls.
Addressing the issues of farmers will be the first challenge of the next CM. The party has made promises that will cost a packet. (see alongside) The CM will also have to work on bridging the faultlines between the upper castes and the SC/STs, widened due to the changes to the SC/ST Act.
For the BJP: Even in defeat, Shivraj Singh Chouhan wins — somewhat
BJP Shivraj Singh Chouhan was a popular leader, but the election results show personal goodwill of key leaders is not sufficient to overcome anti-incumbency beyond a point. However, it is probably fair to say it was Chouhan’s personal popularity that helped the BJP convert the election into a photofinish — an outcome very different from nextdoor Chhattisgarh, where another multiterm BJP CM was utterly routed.
However, neither Chouhan nor the BJP’s national leaders were able to create a narrative in favour of the party on ground-level issues — those of farmers, Dalits and tribals. The leaders also failed to respond to the questions raised by the Opposition.
Like the Congress, the major challenge for the BJP will come in the Lok Sabha elections months from now. The state leadership will have to rise from the disappointment of defeat, and try to replicate to the maximum extent possible the spectacular showing of 2014.
The new government in Madhya Pradesh
At press time Tuesday night, the Congress, after a neck and neck battle through the day, was at 113 seats (both victories and leads) — ahead of the BJP’s 109, but still short of a majority in the 230-member House. Results had been declared in 174 seats, and both parties were leading in 26 seats each. (Read: Congress emerges single largest party in Madhya Pradesh with 113 seats in 230-member House)
Assuming the Congress is able to form the government, the party will be faced immediately with making a difficult choice between Young Turk Jyotiraditya Scindia and Old War Horse Kamal Nath. While former Chief Minister Digvijaya Singh and a couple of -senior leaders have thrown their weight behind Nath, Scindia believes the state needs a new vision and a fresh leadership. Finally, the choice of the MLAs and the views of the seniors will prevail. Veteran Congress leader A K Antony is expected to be in Bhopal as the AICC observer.
The Congress can ill afford factionalism which would derail its Lok Sabha campaign. The party will have to strike a fine balance between competing factional leaders and give adequate representation to all regions and castes. n Madhya Pradesh is a state in which the Congress openly flirted with political Hinduism, promising to develop a “Ram Van Gaman Path”, the route taken by Lord Ram during his exile, build gaushalas in every panchayat, start commercial production of gau mutra (cow urine), and open a spiritual department. It will now have to turn its words into action.
It will also have to act on its commitment to waive farm loans up to Rs 2 lakh, halve farmers’ electricity dues, announce a bonus on 17 agri commodities, and close down Vyapam, the Hindi acronym for the professional examination board which was in the middle of a massive scandal.
Rs 2,200 crore: the challenge of the ‘flat bhavantar’
Should the Congress ultimately be able to form the government, it will be under pressure to implement something that the Shivraj Singh Chouhan-led BJP government had actually announced on October 5, a day before the Model Code of Conduct came into effect: a Rs 500-per-quintal bonus, or “flat bhavantar”, on soyabean and maize sold by farmers from October 20 to January 19.
As on December 10, a total 15.29 lakh tonnes of soyabean and 9.96 lakh tonnes of maize had already been sold under this scheme in 257 regulated markets or mandis of the state. By the time the marketing season ends, it is expected that about 28 lakh tonnes of soyabean and 16 lakh tonnes of maize would get sold. A payment of Rs 500/quintal to farmers against this quantity — over and above the market price realised by them — would cost the state exchequer around Rs 2,200 crore.
“The payment is to be made after January 19. While the new government can claim that this was a decision imposed by the previous regime, not implementing it will be politically suicidal ahead of the coming general elections,” sources said.
