China’s population fell for the second year in a row in 2023. But why?

The fall is part of recent population trends.

Since 2016, the Total Fertility Rate or TFR (the number of children a woman, on average, is expected to bear in her lifetime) has been falling in China. Another important concept here is that of replacement rate. It is the number of children a woman is to have, to replace the present generation in the future. A couple having two children would mean maintaining the same level of population in the future as well.

Fertility rate, total (births per woman) in China over the years. (World Bank data)

China’s TFR, according to its 2020 Census, was 1.3 births per woman — marginally up from the 1.2 in the 2010 and 2000 censuses, but way below the replacement rate of 2.1.

Is the One-child policy to be blamed for China’s falling population?

Introduced in 1980, the One-child policy restricted couples to have only one child, or face harsh penalties. The Communist Party of China, the most powerful entity in the country and one that has been in power since 1949, did so in a bid to accelerate economic growth.

For years, including under the first Chinese President Mao Zedong, the matter of birth control was touched upon, though not accorded great importance. Initially, the focus was on the Great Leap Forward (1958-62), a social and economic overhaul programme that was meant to increase production and improve the quality of life for all. However, its radical measures failed to do so and instead led to the deaths of millions through starvation. As the policy was rolled back, population growth bounced back.

By the 1970s, several Five-year Plans from the government saw mentions of reducing the birth rate and the concept was widely promoted, even to the point of coercion. In the 2015 article ‘Challenging Myths About China’s One-Child Policy’, researchers wrote: “The slogan that summarized the three demographic components of the campaign was “later, longer, and fewer” (wan, xi, shao 晚、稀、少).” It referred to encouraging late marriages, longer gaps between the birth of children and fewer children given birth to.

Throughout this decade, TFR fell in China. In fact, the need for a stringent policy in 1980 was questioned later not just over issues of privacy and the state’s overreach, but on whether it was needed at all.

Deaths and births in China over time.

Researchers added that it was “a damning indictment of the Chinese record” because neighbouring countries in East Asia achieved rapid declines in fertility rates. They did so “via robust economic growth supplemented by voluntary birth planning campaigns, thus avoiding the massive abuses that China’s misguided launching of the one-child program produced.” Countries such as Japan and South Korea have also flagged falling fertility rates as a cause of concern of late.

So what other factors are responsible?

In 2016, the One-child policy officially ended and couples were allowed to have up to two children. This was increased to three children in 2021. However, this has not helped achieve the goals of population growth.

As is the case with its two neighbours, China’s demographic trends have in part to do with an increasingly educated population. Women’s education and employment allow them the agency to make choices about their reproductive health. High pressures of modern society, with increasing competition for jobs, is also a factor.

An AP report said, “People are marrying later and sometimes choosing not to have children. Even those who do often have only one child because of the high cost of educating children in cities in a highly competitive academic environment.”

The Financial Times said in a recent report, “It is a vicious cycle. An economic slowdown should mean young couples delay having children. The resulting decline in fertility rates eventually pushes the economy’s productivity rates lower.”

How could a falling population impact China?

While the contribution of the Covid-19 pandemic to deaths in a population will drop in 2024, it is likely the broad trend will continue.

The AP’s report added that the working-age population between 15 to 59 years, which is seen as being productive in an economy, has now fallen to 61% of the total population. The proportion of those aged 60 and older has increased. Life expectancy has also increased for both men and women over time as a result of advanced healthcare systems.

In the short run, the trend will result in the need for greater investments in elderly care, including palliative care, and hiring more medical professionals and nursing staff. In the longer run, it could lead to greater pressure on the young population to support the ‘dependants’ (those under the age of 15 and over the age of 59). It also comes at a time when China’s overall economic growth is lower than expected and yet to go back to the highs it reached in the 2000s.

The AP report further noted how Chinese President Xi Jinping said last October that it is necessary to strengthen guidance for young people’s views on marriage, parenthood and the family, and to promote policies that support parenthood and actively cope with the ageing of the population. “We must tell good stories about family customs, guide women to play a unique role in promoting the traditional virtues of the Chinese nation and establishing good family customs, and create a new culture of family civilisation,” he was quoted as saying.