Task force expects rise in Covid cases till mid-Jan: ‘No need for panic, be cautious’

Maharashtra registered a total of 117 fresh Covid cases on Thursday and one death in Nashik. As many as 12,416 tests were conducted and the Covid positivity rate is at 0.94 per cent. Overall, there are 369 active cases in the state, of which 10 patients are infected with the new JN.1 variant.

The task force is expected to roll out a list of do’s and don’ts soon and has advised against self-medication. With the virus now in an endemic phase and adequate experience in how to prevent and manage Covid infection, experts said simple measures such as masking and avoiding crowded places and closed rooms are effective. In case of mild symptoms like cold and cough, experts suggested to rest it out at home.

Dr Raman Gangakhedkar, chief of the Covid task force, told The Indian Express that the meeting on Thursday was held to take stock of the Covid situation in the state.

“Data of documented cases in the US since September indicates a low spread of the infection and around 44 per cent of Covid infections are attributed to the JN.1 variant. However, considering that this is the travel season and people visit different destinations during holidays, there is always a risk of a spillover of cases on their return. So despite few hospitalizations, we do not want our health systems to get overloaded in the event of a rise,” said Dr Gangakhedkar.

“There is no need for alarm. However, we do anticipate a rise in cases as it is the travel season and many would love to travel to celebrate New Year’s Eve. Cases are likely to rise till mid-January and then there will be a dip,” Lieutenant General Madhuri Kanitkar (retd), Vice Chancellor of Maharashtra University of Health Sciences and one of the Covid task force members told The Indian Express.

Meanwhile, a study of ten patients with JN.1 covid variant in Maharashtra indicates symptoms are mild. However, the numbers are too few to make an analysis. When contacted, Dr Sanjay Pujari, an infectious diseases expert, said in winter, there is a tendency to gather indoors and transmission occurs also due to close contact. “While there is no evidence right now about how the severity aspect of the JN.1 variant, going by former experience, the risk groups are the same – immuno-compromised persons, the elderly, and those with comorbid conditions,” said Pujari.

Former state epidemiologist Dr Pradeep Awate said with the present cold wave conditions, the surge in Covid cases are anticipated just like the uptick in influenza cases. “The virus has become endemic and now there are seasonal variations,” Dr Awate explained.

Survey: 3 in 4 Indians say mask is history

Many among the medical fraternity have urged people to exercise caution by wearing masks, particularly in crowded areas, including indoors if there is poor ventilation. A survey conducted by LocalCircles – a community social media platform – to understand mask compliance and also with the New Year coming up, to understand what percentage of citizens plan to socialize, found nearly three in four Indians surveyed say mask is history and rarely anyone wears it. Only 3 per cent of those surveyed indicated that one in five are complying with masking norms in their area.

The survey received over 22,000 responses from citizens located in 317 districts of India.

Sachin Taparia, founder of LocalCircles said, “During the Covid pandemic starting from March 2020, masking was advised as a precaution against the spread of the virus. However, since early part of this year, rarely are people seen wearing one, even in crowded places”.