In battle for Maharashtra, Mahayuti rides on schemes, OBC vote; MVA eyes Lok Sabha playbook

State BJP president Chandrashekhar Bawankule said, “Every election is different and challenging. But we are better prepared and confident of victory.”

The Congress exuded confidence, referring to the Mahayuti’s poor performance in the recent Lok Sabha polls, when the latter could win just 17 out of the state’s total 48 seas as against the MVA’s 30 seats. State Congress president Nana Patole said, “MVA is more credible and is a better alternative to Mahayuti”, asking “Going by their dismal performance (in the Lok Sabha polls), why would people vote for the BJP-led coalition in the Assembly polls?”

The upcoming Maharashtra elections will witness a closely-fought battle between the ruling Mahayuti alliance (L) and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi bloc (R). (Express file photos)

After contesting the October 2019 Assembly polls together, the then undivided Uddhav-led Sena broke up with the BJP and formed the MVA government along with the Congress and the NCP. The MVA government collapsed in June 2022, when Eknath Shinde rebelled against then CM Uddhav, split the Sena and formed the Mahayuti government in alliance with the BJP. In July, Ajit Pawar rebelled against his uncle and NCP founder Sharad Pawar and crossed over to the Mahayuti camp along with most of the party MLAs.

The upcoming elections would be a litmus test for several top leaders cutting across party lines.

State stalwart Sharad Pawar is facing the elections to not only achieve a win and put his house in order but also emerge stronger within the MVA.

Similarly, Patole and Uddhav also face a challenge to not only clinch the polls but also to ensure that their respective parties gain the leadership stature within the MVA.

With the BJP playing the lead player in the Mahayuti camp under Deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis’s leadership, it is going all out to retain power in the state. Fadnavis would have to prove his mettle as he has the formidable task to steer his party to victory.

While Shinde bagged the state’s top job with just 40 MLAs, the Assembly polls could be a different ball game, where he would face pressure from not only the MVA but also from within the Mahayuti.

Similarly, Ajit is staring at the biggest political challenge of his career to keep his NCP faction afloat, especially after its disastrous showing in the Lok Sabha polls. The NCP drew flak from the BJP and the Sangh Parivar for weighing down the Mahayuti in the Lok Sabha polls, when the former

could win just one seat. It is another matter that the BJP also fared poorly, with its tally plunging to nine seats from 23 that it had bagged in 2019.

In the Lok Sabha polls, the MVA’s campaign was centred on its narrative of the “threat to Constitution and reservation”, which helped it garner the support of Dalits. The MVA has mounted an outreach to Dalits afresh. It is also again tapping into the perceived unrest among Marathas over their quota demand besides relying on the Muslim support. The MVA had also largely depended on these communities for its remarkable performance in the Lok Sabha polls.

Amid a churn in state politics and the conflict between Marathas and OBCs over the quota issue on the rise, the BJP is looking to replicate its Haryana’s successful “anti-Jat polarisation” strategy in Maharashtra to consolidate the OBC votes. The OBCs are estimated to make up 52% of the state’s population.

In the run-up to the polls, the Mahayuti government has announced several welfare schemes for various sections. It is especially depending on the Ladki Bahin Yojna, which gives Rs 1,500 monthly allowance to 2.5 crore underprivileged women (18 to 65 yrs). On Monday, in a bid to reach out to the middle class, the Shinde government announced a waiver of toll tax from all five entry points on Mumbai’s borders.

Each of the five regions – Vidarbha, Marathwada, North Maharashtra, Western Maharashtra and Konkan (including Mumbai/Thane) has its own political dynamics, with a slew of smaller parties – including Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi, Prahar Jan Shakti, BahujanVikas Party, Maharashtra Navnirman Sena and Swamiji Shetkari Party – along with many party rebels and Independents also expected to be in the fray across the state.