Congress-BJP direct fight in 76 seats likely to hold key to next govt

Region-wise, the BJP has fielded the most candidates in Vidarbha (47), followed by western Maharashtra (32), north Maharashtra (17), Marathwada (19) and Konkan, including Thane and Mumbai (33).

In the MVA, the Congress is contesting 102 seats, ahead of alliance partners Shiv Sena (UBT)’s 96 and NCP (SP)’s 87 seats. The remaining seats have gone to smaller allies.

While the BJP versus Shiv Sena (UBT) contests will be confined to 30 seats, the BJP versus NCP (SP) battle will play out in 39 seats. In three constituencies — Shirpur, Dahanu and Panvel — the BJP will contest against the CPI, the CPI(M) and the PWPI, respectively.

The fate of the Congress and the BJP is likely to depend on how the cotton belt of Vidarbha will vote. Here, the two parties will be engaged in a direct fight for 36 seats. The region will also see several political heavyweights, including Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, state BJP chief Chandrashekhar Bawankule and state Congress president Nana Patole contesting.

While Fadnavis will contest from Nagpur South West for the sixth term against Congress’s Praful Gudadhe, Bawankule will contest against Congress’s Suresh Bhoyar. Patole is pitted against BJP’s Avinash Brahmankar in Sakoli.

Another prominent Congress candidate in the fray is Vijay Wadettiwar who will contest the Brahmapuri seat against BJP’s Krishnalal Sahare. After losing the Lok Sabha seat from Chandrapur, BJP minister Sudhir Mungantiwar will fight to retain his Ballarpur seat against Congress’s Santosh Rawat.

The Congress’s determination to recapture Vidarbha can be seen from its decision to hand over two important posts, state president and Opposition leader, to Patole and Wadettiwar. It was also here that Congress leader Rahul Gandhi got the most traction during his Bharat Jodo Yatra. The party won five out of 10 seats in the region in the Lok Sabha elections.

The Congress’s performance in the region was also reflected in its overall performance, with the party winning 14 of the 17 Lok Sabha seats it contested. Similarly, the BJP’s dismal show of winning just two seats here was mirrored across the state, with the party only managing to win nine of the 28 seats contested.

The BJP leadership knows that regaining its hold over the cotton belt is a daunting task.

In the 2014 Assembly polls, when the BJP emerged as the single largest party with 122 seats, the maximum gain came from the Vidarbha region where it won 44 out of 62 seats. In 2019, the party’s tally dropped to 29 seats.

But this time around, with the RSS taking to the field with renewed aggression to reach out to the masses, especially in Vidarbha, the BJP is confident it will emerge stronger. The BJP has also been on course-correction mode, from consolidating the Other Backward Class voters to placating Dalits. In the last six months, the party also deployed a dedicated team to reach out to people, segment-wise, across the 288 seats.

“The BJP’s dependence on Vidarbha is natural as it has a strong base organisationally. Also, the top state leadership including Union minister Nitin Gadkari, Fadnavis and Bawankule hail from this region, giving it a distinct identity and edge,” a party insider said.

“We will certainly emerge as the number one party. The Mahayuti will get the majority to form the government,” Fadnavis said recently. The optimism was echoed by Bawankule. “The Lok Sabha polls were contested on a false narrative. The Congress hoodwinked people…it will not succeed again,” he said.

Meanwhile, the Congress is counting on its Dalit, Muslim and Kunbi vote bank to recreate the Lok Sabha magic in Vidarbha, and focusing on issues like jobs for the youth. “Unemployment has unleashed huge unrest among the youth, not just in Vidarbha but across Maharashtra. Ironically, very little has been done to address the issue by the government,” Patole said.