In September 2023, Chief Minister Eknath Shinde had to travel to Antarwali-Sarati village in Marathwada’s Jalna district to personally request Maratha social activist Manoj Jarange-Patil to end his 17-day-long fast, seeking Maratha reservation under Kunbi (OBC) category. Marathwada, which has been the epicentre of intense Maratha agitation that further led to counter-protests by OBCs and the state legislature unanimously passing a new law to extend 10 per cent separate reservation to Marathas, will go to polls in two phases and the ruling BJP supported by Shinde’s Shiv Sena is locked in a tough battle against Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena with a supporting hand from the Congress. The Marathwada region (Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar division) is spread across a total area of 64,590 sq km. The division comprises eight districts of Chhatrapati Sambhaji Nagar (earlier Aurangabad), Beed, Hingoli, Jalna, Latur, Nanded, Parbhani and Dharashiv (earlier Osmanabad). Of the 48 Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra, these eight fall in Marathwada, which will go to polls in two phases, on April 26, May 7 and May 13. The region has given four chief ministers to Maharashtra — late Shivajirao Patil-Nilangekar, late Shankarrao Chavan, late Vilasrao Deshmukh and Ashok Chavan, and one deputy chief minister, late Gopinath Munde. Despite some of the tallest leaders of the state coming from the region, it has remained one of the most backward and drought-affected in the state. The dominance of Congress in the region, especially in Lok Sabha polls, is long gone with the party now virtually limited to two districts, namely Latur and Nanded. In 2019, out of the eight seats, the Shiv Sena won three while the BJP won four. The AIMIM was a surprise winner in the lone seat of Chhatrapati Samabhajinagar. In a changed political scenario after the split in the Shiv Sena, the task in front of Thackeray will be to retain his dominance while the BJP aided by Shinde and Congress-turned-BJP leader Ashok Chavan looks to sweep the region. If Thackeray’s campaign is being built on emotional appeal to his voters against the BJP, whom he accuses of splitting the party, the BJP and Shinde-led Sena are banking on the image of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. However, the Maratha agitation and subsequent unrest within the OBCs is set to dominate the narrative in the region. Cong loses dominance The traditional stronghold of Congress started seeing cracks in the late 70s after the state government, then led by Chief Minister Sharad Pawar, moved a proposal to rename Marathwada University after Dr Babasaheb Ambedkar. The aggressive and violent protests and caste riots against this move gave an opportunity to the Shiv Sena, then led by its founder late Bal Thackeray, to find some of its most loyal leaders and dedicated cadre from the peasant Maratha community. In the late 80s when Hindutva forces led a national movement to demolish the Babri Masjid in Ayodhya to build the Ram Temple, Thackeray emerged as a hardline Hindutva leader in Maharashtra. In Marathawada, which has around 15 per cent Muslim population, the saffron avatar of the Sena resulted in polarisation of the electorate resulting in the beginning of Sena and BJP’s electoral dominance in majority of the region. During the period, the Congress slowly lost its political dominance in the region, except for Latur, the home district of former chief minister late Vilasrao Deshmukh, and Nanded, the home district of former chief minister Ashok Chavan. After the formation of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) led by Sharad Pawar, the party registered its presence in Parbhani and Hingoli district for a brief period. But the political discourse continued to be dominated by saffron parties, especially Thackeray’s Sena. In late 2000s, the AIMIM, which has its roots in Hyderabad, started making inroads in the Marathwada region. With specific targeting of Muslim-dominated areas it further shrunk the space of Congress in districts like Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar, Nanded etc. In 2019, the AIMIM won its first Lok Sabha election in Maharashtra when its candidate Imtiyaz Jaleel won from Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar ending three successive terms of the Shiv Sena. Among Marathwada’s eight LS constituencies, the BJP has been a victor in Beed and Jalna since 2009 and 2004 respectively. The party also won Latur (SC) and Nanded in 2019. Uddhav Thackeray-led Sena won Hingoli, Parbhani and Dharashiv (Osmanabad). In the 2019 Assembly elections, the BJP won 16 of the 46 seats, and the Shiv Sena bagged 12. The Congress and NCP got eight each, and two seats went to Independents. After the split in the Sena, only one MP from Hingoli has joined Shinde while the other two remain with Thackeray. In a bid to safeguard his poll prospects, Thackeray has been constantly visiting the region since last one month. Riding high on a sympathy wave and possible support from different quarters of the society, including Muslims, he has already covered Dharashiv, Hingoli LS constituencies. His party is also likely to contest from Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar and Parbhani. “I have come here now. But I will not come again to campaign. Rather, I will come to join you in the celebrations of our victory in Dharashiv,” Thackeray told workers last week at a rally in Ausa. The BJP till now has announced three candidates, namely incumbent Raosaheb Danve and Prataprao Chikhlikar for Jalna and Nanded respectively and former Maharashtra minister Pankaja Munde for Beed. The party has tried to pacify Munde — a prominent Vanjari (OBC) face — who felt sidelined in the party. She will replace her sister Pritam, who entered politics after the death of her father and one of the tallest leaders of Maharashtra BJP, Gopinath Munde in 2014. With Dhananjay Munde, her estranged cousin and state’s Agriculture Minister from Ajit Pawar-led NCP by her side for the first time, Pankaja said, “I will win this seat by a far greater margin than ever this time.” Sharad Pawar-led NCP is likely to field a Maratha face against Munde. The BJP will also benefit in Nanded with the joining of Ashok Chavan — one of the tallest Congress leaders in the state. For Congress, Latur (SC) remains the lone LS seat where it can emerge as a winner as party president Mallikarjun Kharge himself has discussed certain issues with party MLA Amit Deshmukh. Shinde-led Sena is seeking seats which will be fought by Thackeray while NCP led by Ajit Pawar is seeking Parbhani seat. Drought-prone region A drought-prone region which was under the rule of Hyderabad’s Nizam achieved its freedom 13 months after India’s independence on September 17, 1948. Unlike the development of irrigation facilities in other parts of the states, especially western Maharashtra, the lack of it in Marathwada proves to be one of the key factors for turning this into a drought-prone region. So much so that during the previous BJP-led government, then Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis had to supply water to Latur city via railway wagons. In recent times, the Maharashtra government has been focusing on Marathwada by making monetary provisions. In September, in a special Cabinet meeting, the state cleared a package of Rs 46,579 crore for the region out of which nearly 45 per cent is reserved for irrigation projects, including for work needed to divert water from west-flowing rivers. The region lags in industrial development with 65 per cent of its population dependent on farming activities; a failed monsoon often proves fatal. Almost 78 per cent of the farmers in Maharashtra fall under the small and marginal farmers category. The three main crops in the region are cotton, soyabean and pulses. In 2023, over 2,851 farmers died by suicide in the state out of which 1,088 were from Marathwada. In the background of all the developmental woes of the region rose an intense Maratha agitation led by Jarange-Patil which is likely to have an impact on the polling pattern.
