BJP whips up OBC card as Cong emerges a strong opponent

The BJP is likely to contest 50-plus seats out of 62 and accommodate Shiv Sena and NCP in the remaining seats, while Congress leader Vijay Waddetiwar is insisting on 45-plus seats in Vidarbha, leaving the rest for allies Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP (SP).

The region’s importance for the right wing is evident from the two quick visits of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Wardha and Washim on September 20 and October 5 respectively. These visits covered both the eastern and western Vidarbha region and focused on agriculture/ farmers, the textile sector, and OBCs.

With a strong organisational base and proactive support from the RSS, which is headquartered in Nagpur (Vidarbha), Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis represents the Nagpur South West constituency. State BJP president Chandrashekhar Bawankule, who was denied a ticket in the last elections, is likely to contest from the Kampti seat.

Senior cabinet minister Sudhir Mungantiwar who represents the Ballarpur seat is leaving no stone unturned to give a tough fight. Mungantiwar, who was the party’s candidate from Chandrapur Lok Sabha seat, lost to Congress’ Pratibha Dhanorkar. In addition, Union Minister Nitin Gadkari who represents Nagpur Lok Sabha seat will be among the star campaigners of the BJP in the region.

Even Congress state president Nana Patole (Sakoli seat) leader of opposition Vijay Waddetiwar (Chandrapur), former cabinet ministers Nitin Raut (Nagpur North) Yashomati Thakur (Teosa) and Sunil Kedar (Saoner) are likely to contest from their respective constituencies in this region.

At its successive meetings held with the central leadership, Rahul Gandhi has emphasised on the Vidarbha pitch. Once the stronghold of the Congress, Vidarbha saw the BJP firming its foothold in the region in the past two decades, riding the emotive plank of separate statehood.

However, after coming to power with its erstwhile undivided Shiv Sena twice in 1995-1999 and 2014-2019, Vidarbha statehood remained on backburner following lack of support from late Bal Thackeray and Uddhav Thackeray. The undivided Shiv Sena was opposed to the bifurcation of Maharashtra.

In the previous two elections in 2014 and 2019, separate statehood for Vidarbha seems to have lost its appeal among political parties. Instead, the BJP is tackling the backwardness of the region through development plank.

Attempts to make Amravati a textile hub, Gadchiroli minerals global centre and Nagpur defence hub have given some impetus to the region that is lacking in industrial growth.

Among all the chief ministers from 1960 to 2024, it was Congress CM Vasantrao Naik who made the longest tenure record by ruling over 11 years. Yet, Vidabha, driven and dependent on agriculture economy had earned the infamous tag of farmer suicides.

As farmer leader from Vidarbha, Vijay Jawandia, said, “Welfare schemes such as free power and annual allowances of Rs 12,000 are fine but they cannot compensate the huge losses incurred by farmers when their crops are sold below minimum support price.”

Today, farmers are getting Rs 3,800 to 4,500 per quintal on soyabean. It is below the MSP of Rs 4,892 per quintal. Unless farmers get higher renumeration or additional bonuses, they will continue to live in financial distress and it will result in unrest, he said.

In the Lok Sabha elections held earlier this year, one of the major reasons behind the BJP’s debacle in Vidarbha is attributed to the unrest among cotton and soyabean farmers.

Of the 10 total seats, the BJP won just two and Congress five. One seat each was bagged by Shiv Sena, Shiv Sena ( UBT) and NCP ( SP). The NCP led by Deputy CM Ajit Pawar did not contest in Vidarbha.

If the Lok Sabha results are translated into Assembly seats, Mahayuti is likely to lead in 22 and Maha Vikas Aghadi in 35 seats.

Despite announcing a spate of populist schemes such as the Ladki Bahin Yojna and free electricity to farmers, the BJP, with major stakes, is facing a strong opponent in Congress.

The most feared factor in Vidarbha, which will make or break the electoral fate of Mahayuti or MVA is the Kunbi Marathas coming under OBC category in the region. In absence of a credible Kunbi leadership, the BJP switched to micro management by getting smaller castes/ sub-castes within OBCs.

The National Commission of Backward Classes recommended inclusion of seven communities within the central OBC list:
1) Lodh, lodhi, lodha
2) Badgujar
3) Suryavanshi Gujar
4) Leva Gujar, Revi Gujar, Reva Gujar
5) Dangri
6) Bhoyar, Powar
7) Kapewar, Munnar Kupawar, Pentareddy, Bukheri

Among these, some communities wield sizeable clout in Vidarbha region — Bhandara-Gondia, Chandrapur, Gadchiroli, Yavatmal-Washim and Akola.

According to state BJP chief Chandrashekhar Bawankule, “The Lok Sabha poll outcome cannot be equated to Assembly. We have fixed some loopholes. And we are in commanding position. We will do very well across the state, including Vidarbha region.”

In 2014, the BJP swept Vidarbha by winning 44 out of 62 seats. The results saw BJP emerging as largest party with 122 seats. In 2019, its tally dropped to 29 seats. The setback saw BJP’s overall tally decline to 105 seats.

Caste composition

In Vidarbha, two dominant communities — Kunbi and Teli — both under OBC, play an important factor in determining the poll outcome.

While Congress-led MVA is banking on Kunbis/Dalits/Muslims to get an edge, the BJP is firming its base among Telis/banjaras along with other smaller groups, turning it OBC versus OBC in the region.