Ahead of National Park census report,worry: few predators compared to prey

While the SGNP officials paint a positive picture of a gradual growth in the total animal count in the forest between 2007 and 2009,experts say that the steep rise in the number of animals preyed on,or herbivores,against the decline or stagnation in the population of the predators,may be an indicator of a disturbed habitat.

Kishore Rithe,president of Satpuda Foundation,who works in the conservation of Melghat and Tadoba tiger reserves,said typically,an increase in population of deer,boars and so on,is a sign of drop in the preying population like the leopards.

“The SGNP has been facing a serious problem of man-animal conflict for the past few years and the authorities instead of taking long-term conservation measures,are short-sightedly removing leopards from the conflict zones. The SGNP is in the middle of an ever burgeoning city and the anthropogenic pressure on the forest is tremendous. In such a scenario,the forest department should plan a long term protection plan for the leopards.”

The SGNP census of the past three years indicated that the population of the leopards,the largest predator in Mumbai,has remained more or less constant — 20 in 2007,24 in 2008 and 23 in 2009 while that of the jungle cat has dropped — from 7 in 2007 to 4 in 2008 and 2 in 2009.

On the other hand,the spotted deer,the prime prey of leopards,have risen considerably — 347 in 2007,353 in 2008 and 390 in 2009. The wild boar,also a prey for leopards has risen too — from 22 to 24 and 26 over the past three years. Similar trends are evident in monkeys and langoors as well,which have grown in count from 2008 to 2009.

Smaller animals like mongoose and hare,which form the main diet of smaller carnivorous animals like the jungle cats have also seen an increase. The mongoose population,for example,was 9 in 2007,8 in 2008 and almost doubled — 14 in 2009.

 P N Munde,conservator of SGNP,Borivali,however,said that no alarming trend was revealed from the past census. “The past census are wide observation and subject to an error margin. Besides,there is not mathematical model to show any trend. The main point is that the total number of animal count is increasing and that is a positive sign.”

Krishna Tiwari,head of City Forest Project of BNHS warned,“While the past census reports of the animals are indicative of the overall forest health,these census reports are widely inaccurate. The old method of pug mark sighting for four days and night observation from atop machans are very unreliable. Besides,recent research show that the diet of many leopards in the forest have shifted from deer to dogs. This again,is another effect of urbanization.”

Rithe pointed out that the rise in the herbivorous population,seemingly harmless,could have serious implications on the forest environment. “Herbivores are voracious eaters and will finish off the flora in no time. The different floral species in the park are at the risk of getting endangered if there is an abnormal rise in the prey population like the deer,the wild boar,hares and monkeys,” he said.

According to Tiwari,the new census of 2009-10 conducted in March this year,has followed the upgraded ‘line transact method’ for one week.