With results for the high-stakes Punjab battle set to be revealed Thursday, the focus is on how a multi-cornered contest might impact the vote share of the winner. In first three state elections in the new millennium (2002, 2007 and 2012), the winning parties had clocked a vote share of over 40%. Then AAP entered the fray in 2017 and a three-cornered fight brought the winner's - Congress - vote share below the 40% mark. In 2002, when Congress formed the government after winning 62 out of 117 seats in Punjab, the party's vote share was 40.11%. Soon after the poll results, two CPI MLAs also defected to the Congress thus taking the tally to 64. That year, the SAD-BJP alliance's vote share was 36.75% out of which SAD alone had netted 31.08% votes. Five years later in 2007, SAD-BJP alliance wrested power in the state by winning 68 seats and their vote share was 45.37%. On its own, SAD polled 37.09 votes. In this election, Congress despite losing managed to get 40.9% vote share. In 2012, when SAD-BJP retained power after winning 68 seats despite the anti-incumbency, the alliance's vote share was still 41.91%. Congress lost many seats in this election (2017) by a thin margin, and its vote share was 40.09% - only a slight dip from last state election in 2007. The political landscape in Punjab changed with entry of a new player - AAP - in 2014 Lok Sabha polls. AAP fought its first state Assembly battle in 2017. Congress formed the government by winning 77 seats, but its vote share was 38.64% - lowest for any winner since 2002. 2017, saw SAD-BJP alliance poll 30.74% votes - a dip of 11.17% for the alliance compared to 2012. AAP won 20 seats in its first Assembly election in Punjab, with a total vote share was 23.7%. Independents were able to get only 4.7% vote share in 2017 compared to 6.76% in 2012 and 6.82% vote share in 2007. In 2002, interestingly, Independent candidates had netted 11.27% vote share. "With more parties in fray, vote share is likely to decline further and I think that any party which gets around 31% vote share will be able to form government," said a SAD leader from Lambi constituency.
