A tanker sprays water on a Delhi road Saturday (Express/Praveen Khanna)Over the last four days, Delhi’s air quality index (AQI) has been fluctuating sharply — after recording an AQI of 279 (Poor) on Wednesday, the number jumped to 373 (Very Poor) on Thursday, then improved to 218 (Poor) on Friday, only to return to the ‘Very Poor’ category again on Saturday when it recorded an AQI 303, making it one of the most volatile phases of bad air this pre-winter season.
The latest spike coincides with a sharp rise in stubble burning cases in Punjab, which reported 442 farm fires on Saturday — the highest single-day count so far this season and the largest recorded by any state for a day since mid-September, according to the Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI).
According to experts, Delhi’s AQI swings sharply because of emissions from vehicles, waste burning and industries. While changes in wind direction and temperature can quickly trap or disperse pollutants, smoke from stubble burning and other regional emissions adds to Delhi’s load, causing sharp day-to-day fluctuations.

“The wind direction has been predominantly from the Haryana-Punjab side,” said Sunil Dahiya, lead air quality analyst and founder of Delhi-based think tank Envirocatalysts. “While this brings in pollution from stubble burning, it also carries emissions from transport, power plants, industry and biomass burning across the region.”
While data of the Decision Support System (DSS) for air quality management was not updated on Saturday, its last forecast on October 30 had estimated around 9% overall contribution of farm fires to Delhi’s PM2.5, with Jhajjar in Haryana leading the pack with 10.66% emissions.
For most of the season so far, the share of stubble burning has remained below 1%, increasing to around 2% in a few days.
Jhajjar, which currently stands out for its high contribution to Delhi’s PM2.5 load, has two coal-fired thermal power plants adding to the regional pollution, Dahiya said.
“Delhi’s baseline pollution load stays high almost throughout the season… even when the AQI is in the 200 range, the air is still highly polluted,” said Dr Manoj Kumar, pollution analyst at the Centre for Research Energy and Clean Air, an independent think-tank.
He added, “The early November AQI spike is a predictable seasonal trend driven partly by peak fire counts. Yet, this spike sits on an already elevated pollution baseline. During this period, northwesterly winds often carry smoke from stubble burning and other emissions across Punjab and Haryana towards Delhi, adding to the city’s already high baseline from vehicles, industries and waste burning…”
According to India Meteorological Department (IMD), humidity levels reached 98% on Saturday, with shallow fog and smog reducing visibility to 900 m at Safdarjung by 8.30 pm. Palam recorded visibility of 1.3 km with southwesterly winds at 4 kmph.
Meteorological conditions along with emissions – domestic and regional – cause a spike in pollution levels around this time of the year. Last year, too, by mid November, the AQI had reached the ‘Severe plus’ category, making it the worst smog episode ever reported.
From Saturday, the Delhi government enforced the directive of Commission for Air Quality Management (CAQM) in National Capital Region and Adjoining Areas, banning the entry of commercial goods vehicles not registered in Delhi and compliant with BS-III or lower emission standards, while allowing those running on CNG, LNG, electricity, or compliant with BS-VI norms.
Further, Delhi Environment Minister Manjinder Singh Sirsa on Saturday inspected pollution control measures and the ambient air quality monitoring system at Anand Vihar, one of the city’s most polluted hotspots. In a post on X, he wrote that the Delhi government is “working continuously on all 13 hotspots with special monitoring underway”.
He added that while he reviewed on-ground compliance of instructions, he identified three main causes behind Anand Vihar’s high pollution levels — heavy traffic, poor traffic management and dust from damaged roads — and directed officials to fix these issues.
The AAP, meanwhile, again accused the BJP-led government of manipulating AQI readings by deploying water sprinklers around monitoring stations. AAP Delhi state president Saurabh Bharadwaj alleged that water was being continuously sprayed around the Jahangirpuri station to artificially lower readings.
October had ended on a grim note for Delhi, with the city recording an average AQI of 223 in the “Poor” category, making it the second-worst October in five years.