Above-normal maximum temperatures expected over most parts of India this summer

Over northwest India, which includes Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, heatwave conditions are unlikely in the first half of April, according to IMD director-general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra. He also said that forecasts pointed to good rainfall activity over northwest and central India in April.

Normal to above-normal rainfall is expected over most parts of the northwest and central India in April. April’s first week is likely to see rainfall over northwest India with the activity reducing from April 7 onwards. On April 3 and 4, northwest and central India could witness thunderstorms and hail, going by the forecast.

In the second half of April, the temperatures are likely to rise, with a higher possibility of heatwaves in eastern India, including Odisha, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Chhattisgarh, Bihar and eastern Uttar Pradesh.

From April to June, the eastern parts of the country could see a significantly-higher-than-normal number of heatwave days, around 8 to 10 days above the normal, Mohapatra said. Parts of northwest India could see heatwave days that are around 2 to 4 days above the normal, the IMD forecast shows.

In April, “above-normal heatwave days are likely over many parts of Bihar, Jharkhand, east UP, Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal, north Chhattisgarh, western part of Maharashtra, Gujarat and some parts of west UP, Punjab and Haryana”, the forecast said.

Mohapatra also pointed to forecasts that indicate a potential for El Nino conditions to develop from July to September. La Nina conditions have weakened, with conditions now being neutral, and there is a potential for El Nino conditions to develop from around the monsoon and extend into the fall season, he said.

In a forecast issued in March, the World Meteorological Organisation said that a warming El Nino event might develop this year and could result in a spike in global temperatures. El Nino conditions refer to warmer sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. The El Nino conditions likely to develop this year come after what was a “triple dip” or prolonged La Nina – three consecutive years of La Nina conditions which are associated with cooler sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.