Wall Street investment bank Goldman Sachs has said India is expected to achieve a real GDP growth of 8 per cent in FY19 as against an expected 6.4 per cent in FY18, as the negative impact from shocks this year fades and the bank recapitalisation programme unlocks credit and private investment growth.
However, consumer inflation (CPI) is expected to rise above the mid-point of the Reserve Bank’s target band (to 5.3 per cent in FY19) due to a pickup in food and commodity prices, it said in a report released here. The US bank also expects the RBI to hike policy rates by 75 bps by mid-2019.
Economic activity could pick up in H1 2018, Goldman Sachs said, “as the drag from the idiosyncratic shocks of demonetisation and GST implementation fade”.
“Four months into GST, …there are still some headwinds to activity due to uncertainties around the new tax system,” it said. However, it further noted that its discussions with retailers and manufacturers show that recent government announcements to ease compliance burden and reduced tax rates for nearly 200 products can boost activity over the next three to six months.
Keeping a “overweight” view on the stock markets, Goldman Sachs chief Asia Pacific regional equity strategist Timothy Moe said, “Nifty is estimated to hit 11,600 by December 2018 from the current levels with earnings growth to be the key propellant.”