Rajasthan Exit Poll 2023 Highlights: Electoral forecast indicate BJP has an edge over Congress

BJP MP Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore said that the neck-and-neck contest between BJP and Congress is limited to exit poll numbers only. "...People want transformation. I am sure the BJP is forming the govt with a full majority in Rajasthan...The results of Dec 3 will be in favour of the BJP...," he said.

#WATCH | Jaipur: BJP MP Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore says, "...People want transformation. I am sure the BJP is forming the govt with a full majority in Rajasthan...The competition is limited to the exit polls only. The results of Dec 3 will be in favour of the BJP..." pic.twitter.com/Gf4qV62HTc

— ANI (@ANI) November 30, 2023

Reacting to exit poll numbers, Leader of Opposition Rajasthan State Assembly and Churu MLA Rajendra Rathore said, "BJP's seat tally will be higher than exit poll predictions because there was an under-current against the Congress. The polling percentage this time was at an all-time high for Rajasthan Assembly polls, which indicates that there was anti-incumbency." 

VIDEO | "BJP's seat tally will be higher than exit poll predictions because there was an under-current against the Congress. The polling percentage this time was at an all-time high for Rajasthan Assembly polls, which indicates that there was anti-incumbency," says Rajasthan LoP… pic.twitter.com/fnjZwguaJK

— Press Trust of India (@PTI_News) November 30, 2023

Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot on Thursday said he was confident of a Congress win in Rajasthan assembly polls, and added that the BJP would not form the government in any of the five states where elections are being held.

'Congress government will be formed (in Rajasthan). In all five states, I feel that BJP is not going to form the government. Exit polls may say something, surveys might suggest something, but based on the feedback of people in the cities and villages, I feel that our government should come,' Gehlot told reporters in New Delhi.

He said the Congress government in Rajasthan is the only government in the country, which has no anti-incumbency factor against it. “People are saying that the chief minister has not left any stone unturned in doing development works.” Gehlot slammed the “frightening language” used by BJP leaders, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Union Home Minister Amit Shah, during the election campaign. “It was the language of vengeance and creating tension,” he said.

'No one liked the language they spoke. They were attacking me because they could not topple my government like they did in Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh. They failed. “They were hiding that pain inside. They deliberately planned in Delhi to not let Congress retain its government in Rajasthan. So, they were angry and spoke such a language,' he said. (PTI)

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— Rajasthan PCC (@INCRajasthan) November 30, 2023

How does the common man judge which exit poll is most reliable? Rely on the one whose numbers you like the most and dismiss the one whose numbers you dislike? 

Sanjay Kumar, Professor at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) explains all about the making of an exit poll, its accuracy, sample size and much more. (Know more)

Here's a look at all the exit poll numbers for Rajasthan Assembly Elections 2023:

With 94-114 seats , the BJP is a clear winner in the state, says exit poll numbers of ABP News-C Voter survey.

Experience shows that there is no guarantee of accuracy when it comes to exit polls — which are as likely as to be accurate as wildly off the mark. (Read here to know how spot-on the pollster predictions were...)

Five ago, pollsters predicted a smooth win for the Congress in Rajasthan.

Exit polls predict comfortable victory for Congress in #Rajasthan

Follow LIVE UPDATES>>https://t.co/v955B5GXCy pic.twitter.com/wrbqa5XPnK

— The Indian Express (@IndianExpress) December 7, 2018

The BJP and Congress will witness a close fight in the desert state, as per exit poll numbers. Here's a look at the various surveys:

Republic TV-Matrize exit poll results call the electoral race in the BJP (115-130 seats)'s favour, with the Congress likely to win in 56-72 constituencies.

While quite a few exit polls indicate a narrow contest between the BJP and Congress with a saffron party edge, India TV-CNX results have the Congress winning in 94-104 seats, while the lotus party clinches 80-90 seats. 

Though a few exit polls indicate a narrow contest between the BJP and Congress, P-MARQ predicts the saffron party (with 105-125 seats) toppling the grand old party (with 69-91 seats) for control in the desert state.

Dainik Bhaskar's exit poll results forecast the BJP in 98-105 constituencies while the grand old party takes charge in 85-95 seats.

Early exit poll results relesed by India Today-Axis My India indicate a neck-to-neck race between the BJP (80-100) and Congress (86-106).

According to early predictions of three exit polls, Rajasthan CM Ashok Gehlot may lose power in the state. As per, Times Now-ETG, TV9 Bharatvarsh Polstrat and elections forecast agency, Jan Ki Baat, the Congress will be unable to hold on to incumbancy, with the BJP likely to seize control in the state.

Times Now-ETG forecast in its early exit polls, has the saffron party making a roaring comeback in 108-128 seats, while the Congress is likely to win 56-72 constituencies.

TV9 Bharatvarsh Polstrat has released its early exit poll results that has BJP winning in 100-110 seats, while Congress bags 90-100 seats.

According toearly exit polls predicted by election prediction company Jan Ki Baat, Congress will clinch between 62 to 85 seats in the state, while BJP will seize control in 100-122 seats.

Rajasthan, the largest state by area, has had only three Chief Ministers in the last 33 years and six (not counting one who was in the post for just 15 days) in 50; has produced hung Assemblies but the largest party has always managed a majority; and has never witnessed a government collapse, even though its CMs have been dismissed on three occasions. (Read further...)

In Dec 2018, most of the exit polls had predicted a comfortable win for Congress in Rajasthan with the grand old party marching towards a majority mark. The BJP was battling strong anti-incumbency in Rajasthan, a state that has not voted the ruling party for a second term in the last 20 years.

India Today-Axis My India Exit Poll had said the Congress may win 119-141 out of total 199 seats. The BJP, it had projected, may win 55-72 seats. Times Now-CNX had forecast 105 seats for Congress and 85 for BJP. However, Republic TV-Jan Ki Baat had forecast a tighter race between the two parties. It had given the Congress and the BJP 81-101 and 83-103 seats respectively.

A total of 5,26,90,146 voters are registered in the state, while 1,862 candidates are in the fray.

The election in the desert state is a direct contest between the ruling Congress and the opposition BJP. The Congress is aiming to buck the trend of the ruling party being voted out every five years, while the BJP is eyeing a return in the state ahead of the Lok Sabha polls next year.

In the 2018 assembly polls, the Congress wrested power from the BJP and formed the government with Ashok Gehlot as chief minister for a third time. The Congress had won 100 seats and the BJP 73 then. The BJP, in 2013, formed the government with Vasundhara Raje becoming the chief minister for a second time. In 2013, the BJP had won 163 seats and the Congress 21.