Madhya Pradesh Exit Poll 2023 Highlights: Pollsters predict return of Shivraj Singh Chouhan, give edge to BJP in exit polls

#WATCH | Delhi: Union Minister Prahlad Patel says, "I am saying this from the first day that I am seeing transformation in Madhya Pradesh like 2003. That time we were the Opposition and now we are the ruling govt...I feel we should wait for Dec 3..." pic.twitter.com/OQXdbNKc05

— ANI (@ANI) November 30, 2023

#WATCH | Bhopal: Congress leader Digvijaya Singh says, "Exit poll results are very diverse. We cannot say anything about it. I can assure you that the Congress will get more than 130 seats in Madhya Pradesh...People want transformation...People are fed up with CM Shivraj Singh… pic.twitter.com/5L6pdLYpgd

— ANI (@ANI) November 30, 2023

VIDEO | "I already said this earlier that the love for PM and his leadership, Amit Shah's strategy, JP Nadda's chairmanship, hard work by workers, the double-engine government and the development that has taken place here, I was never in doubt that BJP will win. I always knew… pic.twitter.com/ia2gVFnfYd

— Press Trust of India (@PTI_News) November 30, 2023

#WATCH | Bhopal: On exit polls, Madhya Pradesh CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan says "I said this at a lot of places that the kind of support we are getting from women of our state, the results will be unexpected and unprecedented..." pic.twitter.com/ZdYyR0A9Ci

— ANI (@ANI) November 30, 2023

In a video that went viral on Monday, Congress workers in Madhya Pradesh’s Balaghat were seen confronting election officials for opening the strong room where postal ballots had been stored, raising questions about the security of the ballots and electronic voting machines (EVMs).

While the Madhya Pradesh Congress submitted a complaint to the state Chief Electoral Officer alleging manipulation of postal ballots, Balaghat collector and District Election Officer Girish Kumar Mishra said in a video message that the strong room had been opened by the assistant returning officer, with prior intimation to Congress and BJP representatives, for “sorting” of the ballots and not counting. Till Tuesday morning, the Election Commission (EC) had yet to comment on the matter. Read more

The ‘Maharaja of Gwalior’ rallied his troops for war. “Mera senapati apne qila ka hifazat karega (My commanders will protect the fort),” Union minister Jyotiraditya Scindia, the 52-year-old scion of Gwalior’s erstwhile royal family, said as he addressed BJP workers at Piprai village in Madhya Pradesh’s Ashok Nagar district on October 29. Scindia spots a party worker in the crowd sipping water and addresses him directly, “My commander, you can drink water later; now is the time for war.”

Around 250 km away, atop a hill, lies the Raghogarh fort, where the traditional opponents of the Gwalior royal family have set in motion a plan to unseat Scindia and the ruling BJP from the Gwalior-Chambal region. 

Ahead of the November 17 elections in Madhya Pradesh, The Indian Express travelled over 790 km, starting from the Gwalior-Chambal region, where this battle of royals is playing out, and ending at Chhindwara, the home base of Kamal Nath, the ageing yet most effective combatant in the Congress’s ranks who is still smarting from Scindia’s ‘betrayal’ of 2020 and is patiently waiting to reclaim his seat. Read more

Most exit polls on Thursday predicted an edge to the Congress in Chhattisgarh and Telangana while forecasting that it was advantage BJP in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan.

In Madhya Pradesh, while Jan Ki Baat exit poll predicted that the BJP would get 100-123 seats and the Congress 102-125, Republic TV-Matrize forecast 118-130 seats for the BJP and 97-107 for the Congress.

TV9 Bharatvarsh Polstrat said the BJP would get 106-116 and the Congress would get 111-121.

Today's Chanakya, however, predicted a massive victory for the BJP in Madhya Pradesh, forecasting that the BJP would get 151 (plus minus 12 seats) and the Congress 74 (plus minus 12 seats).

Jist-TIF-NAI said the Congress was enjoying 2018-like edge in Madhya Pradesh, predicting 107-124 seats for the party as against the BJP's 102-119. (PTI)

BJP: 151 ± 12 Seats

Congress: 74 ± 12 Seats 

Others: 5 ± 4 Seats

Ahead of the counting of votes in the Madhya Pradesh Assembly elections this week, the Congress has alleged malpractice claiming that postal ballots were taken out of the strongroom in Balaghat, even as local officers said it was a routine exercise carried out before the representatives of both parties.

The Congress had submitted a memorandum to the Madhya Pradesh chief electoral officer seeking action against the Balaghat collector for allegedly taking postal ballots out of the strongroom and indulging in malpractice. This came after a video of officials sorting ballot papers from the strongroom went viral, following which local Congress party leaders reached the spot and made allegations of malpractice. Read more

The polling was held on November 17 when Madhya Pradesh saw a polling percentage of 76.22 per cent. The state has surpassed the polling percentage of the 2018 assembly polls when it saw 74.97 per cent polling. The male voting percentage was 75.84 per cent, for females it was 74.01 per cent and for third gender, it was 25 per cent in the 2018 elections.

As Madhya Pradesh heads for what looks like another close election, one data from the 2018 Assembly polls when the Congress just finished ahead of the BJP is telling.

In at least 30 seats (of the total 230 in the state), the margin of victory was less than 3,000 votes last time. The Congress won 15 of these seats and the BJP 14, with the BSP taking 1.

The Congress emerged as the single largest party in Madhya Pradesh after winning 114 seats in the 230-member House in 2018 Vidhan Sabha elections in Madhya Pradesh. BSP won two seats while the BJP was able to win only 109 seats.

BJP: 118-130

Congress: 97-107

Others: 0-2

BJP: 106-116 seats

Congress: 111-121 seats 

BJP: 106-116 seats

Congress: 111-121 seats 

BJP: 100 - 123 seats
Congress: 102 - 125 seats

Between now and Sunday, when the results come for the Assembly elections to five states, a lot of the analysis will be centred on the exit polls whose data was released Thursday evening. But experience shows that there is no guarantee of accuracy when it comes to exit polls — which are as likely as to be accurate as wildly off the mark.

In the 2018 Assembly polls, the averages of the selected exit polls here were off by only a handful of seats in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, but their predictions were inaccurate by a considerable margin for Telangana, Chhattisgarh and Mizoram. Read more