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Journalism of Courage
The early trends in Karnataka assembly polls indicate a clear edge for the Congress, but the BJP is still optimistic about avoiding an embarrassing defeat in a state where its state unit had to battle anti-incumbency, lack of cohesiveness, and the absence of strong leadership during the campaign.
As the party fell behind quite early on during counting, some BJP leaders talked of “utter confusion in the leadership as well as rank and file” about ticket distribution, who would lead the campaigning, and the issues it had to focus on. The party initially insisted that its campaign would be on the development agenda and the report card it placed before voters. But the party gradually shifted to its Hindutva plank, especially after the Congress talked about Bajrang Dal in its manifesto. “It was clear to the party that the Hindutva plank would not work in Karnataka. But we started losing the plot,” said a state BJP leader.
Although the trends signalled a clear win for the Congress, a section of BJP leaders still expressed optimism that the final result would throw up a hung Assembly, giving opportunities for the party to explore possibilities of retaining power. But others have already begun “soul searching” for reasons to which it can attribute its performance. Sources said some of the reasons were a lack of a clear idea in the state unit, reliance on the national leadership for heavy lifting, and “utter confusion” about candidate selection as well as the leadership. They pointed out that the state unit heavily relied on former Chief Minister B S Yediyurappa and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, both of whom are popular.
At 10 am, as per the Election Commission website, trends were available for 197 of the 224 Assembly seats, with the Congress leading in 100, the BJP in 68, and the Janata Dal (Secular) in 24.
The current tally of the JD(S), which has been hit by charges of nepotism and lack of clarity in its political position among its leadership during the campaign, hints that the voters preferred to stick to national parties to get a clear verdict. It also indicates that there is a possible erosion in its traditional support base of Vokkaligas and Muslims in regions where it is strong. The JD(S) had 37 in the outgoing Assembly.
While a victory in Karnataka was a make-or-break situation for the Congress — battling a rapid dwindling of its support base and the exodus of leaders — to remain a formidable force on the national scene, for the BJP losing Karnataka will be a major embarrassment as it has been the party’s gateway to the south and the only state where it could come power in the region. Another challenge for the party at the national level will be the morale boost such a victory could give to the Congress and other Opposition parties ahead of the general elections next year. A clear win for the Congress will not only lift the party internally, but it will also give impetus to its attempts to be at the leading position for a prospective opposition unity platform.
However, the campaign in Karnataka showed that Modi’s popularity remains intact and at the national level no other party has so far been able to emerge as a major threat to its dominance. An embarrassing rout, if it happens, will be a major setback for the BJP which is gearing up for the next electoral battle in key states such as Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan, where elections are due later this year.
